{"id":45647,"date":"2026-09-02T22:22:43","date_gmt":"2026-09-03T03:22:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/?p=45647"},"modified":"2026-09-02T22:22:43","modified_gmt":"2026-09-03T03:22:43","slug":"the-2026-senate-campaign-updates-37","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2026\/09\/02\/the-2026-senate-campaign-updates-37\/","title":{"rendered":"The 2026 Senate Campaign: Updates"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>CONTINUING IN THE ROLE<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Rep. Stephanie Bice (R-OK) confirms the presence of an <em>anchor caught in the coral reef<\/em>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cThe challenge that we have is that we have to get over the narrative that \u2018I don\u2019t like this guy, so I\u2019m going to vote for the Democrat,\u2019\u201d said Rep. Stephanie Bice (R-Okla.), according to audio obtained by\u00a0<em><strong>The Bulwark<\/strong><\/em>. \u201cBecause I\u2019m telling you right now, I\u2019m hearing it already.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAnd what happens is that\u2019ll impact me because . . . two things will either happen,\u201d Bice added. \u201cThey\u2019re going to vote for the Democrat and they may split [the] ticket and vote for me and a few others, or\u2014this is my bigger fear right now\u2014people don\u2019t go vote.\u201d<em> [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.thebulwark.com\/p\/house-republican-gop-stephanie-bice-in-private-meeting-trump-exhausting-voters-not-helping\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>The Bulwark<\/strong><\/a>]<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>So an awareness that the poison that is Trump is pervading the Republican field and will cost them seats. Will Democrats figure this out? Or are their weaknesses going to doom them to look helpless?<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the interesting part: dealing with the enraged Party leader. The more room GOP candidates seek to put between themselves and their President, the more likely he&#8217;ll be provoked and start yelling. After all, Party candidates avoiding contact with him is not congruent with an ego-satisfying vision of him being the well-beloved Leader who is saving America.<\/p>\n<p>While I expect Republicans will move with delicacy in this matter, we may still see the Republican Party melt down <strong>before<\/strong> the midterms, and that would be quite shocking.<\/p>\n<p>What might be the flame that starts the fire?<\/p>\n<div class=\"article-row-with-three-columns w-full\" data-v-8d32737f=\"\">\n<div class=\"mx-auto max-w-[1350px] gap-x-[30px] px-5 sm:px-[30px] md:grid md:grid-cols-[1fr,300px] lg:grid-cols-[300px,1fr,300px]\" data-testid=\"article-column-left\" data-v-8d32737f=\"\">\n<div class=\"mx-auto w-full max-w-[630px] text-left\" data-testid=\"article-column-center\" data-v-8d32737f=\"\">\n<div class=\"mx-auto w-full text-left\" data-v-8d32737f=\"\">\n<blockquote>\n<p class=\"font-text text-[length:var(--dimension-typescale-body-l)] text-[var(--color-text-primary)] leading-[1.6] mt-5 md:mt-[1.875rem]\" data-testid=\"plain-text-block\">But a POLITICO survey of more than 70 GOP candidates and members revealed that most either do not plan to attend or are still weighing whether to go. Dozens more declined to share their plans.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-text text-[length:var(--dimension-typescale-body-l)] text-[var(--color-text-primary)] leading-[1.6] mt-5 md:mt-[1.875rem]\" data-testid=\"plain-text-block\">The 45 Republicans cited a variety of reasons for skipping the first midterm convention put on by a major party in more than four decades. Some cited prior obligations such as fundraisers or events in their districts that were planned before the convention was\u00a0<a class=\"text-[var(--color-link-default)]\" href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2026\/06\/30\/trump-gop-midterm-convention-dallas-00982995\">scheduled in June<\/a>. Others had personal conflicts, like weddings and family events, and still others raised qualms about the five-figure-minimum fees that party officials want attending lawmakers to pony up.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-text text-[length:var(--dimension-typescale-body-l)] text-[var(--color-text-primary)] leading-[1.6] mt-5 md:mt-[1.875rem]\" data-testid=\"plain-text-block\">And some Republicans in tough races are steering clear of the gathering \u2014 which has come to be called \u201cTrump-a-palooza\u201d in some GOP circles \u2014 as they face growing <a class=\"text-[var(--color-link-default)]\" href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2026\/07\/13\/swing-state-candidates-faced-with-conundrum-over-midterm-convention-00995429\">hesitation about associating themselves<\/a>\u00a0with the polarizing president so close to the election.<em> [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2026\/09\/02\/gop-midterm-convention-attendance-01061286\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>Politico<\/strong><\/a>]<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p data-testid=\"plain-text-block\">The <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/2026_Republican_National_Convention\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em><strong>2026 Republican National Convention<\/strong><\/em><\/a>, referenced above, is scheduled for 9-10 September 2026. The venue will be the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. Mutters on the web have suggested that attendance may be disappointing; I seem to remember one Republican official calling it a convention for Republican grifters, although I cannot find that quote on the blog.<\/p>\n<p data-testid=\"plain-text-block\">I doubt this is a political maneuver designed to help Republicans win their races, but rather a satisfaction of a Trumpian ego requirement. One of the supporting facets is an overflowing crowd ready to adore Trump.<\/p>\n<p data-testid=\"plain-text-block\">If he doesn&#8217;t get such satisfaction and polls continue to come out predicting Republican candidate failures <em>en masse<\/em>, what will happen?<\/p>\n<p data-testid=\"plain-text-block\">In American history this may be the first time a Party broke up on the rocks of someone&#8217;s unhappy ego.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><strong>MICE TO THEIR STARTING STALLS!<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Each racing mouse will be equipped with a 10 microgram weight around their waists to <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2026\/08\/27\/the-2026-senate-campaign-updates-35\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">equalize the injustice of being born<\/a>.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2026\/08\/27\/the-2026-senate-campaign-updates-35\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Texas<\/a> continues to be a highlight of the 2026 Senate races. First up, a specific poll from <em><strong>Texas Southern University<\/strong><\/em> that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mediaite.com\/politics\/new-texas-senate-poll-shows-talarico-clobbering-paxton-in-districts-trump-won-by-double-digits\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em><strong>MediaIte<\/strong><\/em><\/a> sums up:<br \/>\n<blockquote><p>The pollsters surveyed 700 likely voters in both TX-15 and TX-34, resulting in a margin of error of +\/- 3.70%, and 600 likely voters in TX-28, with a margin of error of +\/- 4.00%.<\/p>\n<p>In TX-15, which Trump won by 18 points in 2024, 50% of respondents chose [Democratic nominee James] Talarico and 42% [Republican nominee Ken] Paxton; TX-28, which Trump won by 10, was Talarico 51% and Paxton 41%; and TX-34, which Trump won by 10, was Talarico 53% and Paxton 42%.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>It&#8217;s like winning a special election: How much does this mean? Hard to say, but the boding is not well for Paxton, I think.<\/p>\n<p>I see one of the two, the report is ambiguous, also agree concerning a Trump endorsement:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8230; the downward drag of Trump and the GOP\u2019s poor polling on key issues like immigration and the economy.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Click on the above <em><strong>MediaIte<\/strong><\/em> link to see the legendary Nate Silver&#8217;s rating of Texas. I&#8217;m surprised there&#8217;s been no mention of a good ol&#8217; curseout in reaction by the President.<\/p>\n<p><P>Some Republican pundits, including my preferred Republican commentator, Erick Erickson, are <a href=\"https:\/\/ewerickson.substack.com\/p\/the-pyrrhic-victory-long-ago-predicted\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">plumb disgusted<\/a> with Paxton &#8211; and, by implication, the Texas <em><strong>GOP<\/strong><\/em>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>The only thing for which Paxton has ever shown prodigious energy is philandery and possibly corruption. He is a lazy candidate in a heated race, and laziness is not a flaw you can fundraise your way around. In the primary, I argued that Paxton could beat John Cornyn and that dragging the man across the finish line in November could cost Republicans the Senate. We have arrived at that moment.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>No doubt I stole that observation from Erickson way back when I suggested Paxton would be a mighty blow to the GOP cause. Honestly, while Trump&#8217;s endorsement was not a surprise, as he prefers weak asses that he can control in the important seats of Congress, the Texas <em><strong>GOP<\/strong><\/em> nominating Paxton, endorsement or no, was <em>completely<\/em> gobsmacking. Every primary voter who marked Paxton on their ballot should never be allowed a position of importance in the future.<\/p>\n<p><P>Unknown pollster <em><strong>Overton Insights<\/strong><\/em> has the two candidates in a dead-heat at 43.4% for Paxton and 44.0% for Talarico, take that for what you will.<\/p>\n<p>But can Talarico beat Paxton? In <a href=\"https:\/\/ewerickson.substack.com\/p\/beating-talarico\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">another post<\/a>, Erickson notes a <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/KFILE\/status\/2094796070760898705\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Tweet<\/a> from some dude named Andrew Kaczynski:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>NEW: In a 2020 Zoom forum with climate activists, James Talarico spoke of \u201cdismantling\u201d capitalism, grouping it with White supremacy and climate change.<br \/>\nIn the same forum, he compared Texas\u2019 oil industry to \u201ccassette tapes,\u201d saying it&#8217;s &#8220;not gonna last.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>If this is, in fact, true, then Talarico&#8217;s going to have a helluva time winning in a State that practically <em>worships<\/em> capitalism &#8211; and for good reason.<\/li>\n<li>Were you thinking the lineup for the general election for the seat of the late <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2026\/08\/27\/the-2026-senate-campaign-updates-35\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">South Carolina<\/a> Senator L. Graham (R), now occupied by his sister Senator D. Graham (R), was set? You&#8217;re just a wee bit premature:<br \/>\n<blockquote>\n<p class=\"gnt_ar_b_p\">Coming off a close loss in the Republican Senate primary,\u00a0<a class=\"gnt_ar_b_a\" href=\"https:\/\/norman.house.gov\/\" data-t-l=\":b|z|k|\u2691u\">U.S. Rep. Ralph Norman<\/a> suggested that voters write his name in as their choice in the November general election. &#8230;<\/p>\n<p class=\"gnt_ar_b_p\">Speaking to reporters in Washington, D.C. on Aug. 31, Norman said &#8220;it was just shocking to me&#8221; that President Donald Trump got personally involved in the primary.<em> [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.greenvilleonline.com\/story\/news\/politics\/2026\/09\/01\/ralph-norman-declines-to-say-he-would-campaign-for-darline-graham\/91568476007\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>Greenville News<\/strong><\/a>]<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>At least one political analyst thinks the political dynamic could change if Norman strongly dedicates himself to a tour of the State.<\/li>\n<li>The 1 September primary for the Senator&#8217;s seat for <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2026\/08\/27\/the-2026-senate-campaign-updates-35\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Massachusetts<\/a> yielded a <a href=\"https:\/\/ballotpedia.org\/United_States_Senate_election_in_Massachusetts,_2026\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Democratic result<\/a> of incumbent Senator Markey (D) 65.6%, Rep Moulton (R) 34.4%; Republican Michael Deaton (R) ran unopposed.\n<p>Interestingly, <em><strong>Emerson College<\/strong><\/em> released a <a href=\"https:\/\/emersoncollegepolling.com\/massachusetts-2026-poll-sen-markey-holds-commanding-lead\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">poll<\/a> on 30 August and came to a 65% to 35% result. A 26 August poll from the\u00a0<em><strong>University of New Hampshire\u00a0<\/strong><\/em>had Markey winning 63% \u2013 28%. Some redemption for other primary divergences.<\/p>\n<p>Perhaps this did in Moulton?<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>In Tuesday&#8217;s\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2026\/07\/26\/politics\/massachusetts-democratic-senate-primary-moulton-markey?cid=external-feeds_iluminar_yahoo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\" data-ylk=\"slk:Democratic Senate primary;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas;\" data-yga=\"{&quot;yLinkElement&quot;:&quot;link&quot;,&quot;yLinkElementType&quot;:&quot;article_link&quot;}\" data-rapid_p=\"7\" data-y-link-id=\"1a16r6j18i4i7p0tdemv\" data-v9y=\"1\">Democratic Senate primary<\/a>\u00a0in deep blue Massachusetts, longtime Sen.\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2026\/05\/29\/tech\/tiktok-spinoff-deal-markey-letter-national-security?cid=external-feeds_iluminar_yahoo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\" data-ylk=\"slk:Ed Markey;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas;\" data-yga=\"{&quot;yLinkElement&quot;:&quot;link&quot;,&quot;yLinkElementType&quot;:&quot;article_link&quot;}\" data-rapid_p=\"8\" data-y-link-id=\"1hmxkby0tooqpz1lpech\" data-v9y=\"1\">Ed Markey<\/a> is harking back to those [Boston Tea Party] roots as he pitches himself to voters as the anti-establishment candidate against Rep. Seth Moulton \u2013 despite arriving to Washington just three years after Joe Biden did in 1973.<em> [<strong>CNN <\/strong>via <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.yahoo.com\/news\/politics\/articles\/increasingly-nasty-primary-decide-whether-160029086.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">yahoo!<\/a><\/strong>]<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/li>\n<li>In <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2026\/08\/07\/the-2026-senate-campaign-updates-30\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Iowa<\/a>, does this mar Republican Rep Hinson&#8217;s (R) run for Iowa&#8217;s open seat in the Senate?<br \/>\n<blockquote><p>Republican U.S. Senate candidate Ashley Hinson, a congresswoman pitching herself as a warrior\u00a0<span class=\"LinkEnhancement\"><a class=\"Link\" href=\"https:\/\/ashleyhinson.com\/issues\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">against<\/a><\/span>\u00a0special interests in Iowa, and her husband, Matt Arenholz, have deep ties to the insurance industry, with Arenholz owning millions worth of interest in a private equity-backed brokerage.<\/p>\n<p>Documents reviewed by NOTUS reveal Arenholz also held a government affairs post at a leading insurance industry lobbying group, which has not been previously reported. He helped arrange meetings with Hinson and other Iowa congressional delegation members, the documents indicate.<em> [<a style=\"cursor: pointer !important; user-select: none !important;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.notus.org\/congress\/ashley-hinson-husband-iowa-insurance\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>NOTUS<\/strong><\/a>]<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>I&#8217;m not feeling that surge of outrage, unless Hinson has empasized her alleged lack of ties to special interest groups. Nor am I aware of Iowa&#8217;s feelings on that particular subject. I always figure politicians have links to special interest groups simply out of necessity; the mistake is taking positions in them or advice from them without critical thought. This may have an impact on a very tight race, but it&#8217;ll be hard to measure.<\/p>\n<p>Speaking of tight races, unknown pollster <em><strong>Wedgewood Polls<\/strong><\/em> gives Rep Hinson a 50% &#8211; 48% lead over Josh Turek. The margin of error is specified as a largish \u00b14.6 points.<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>Michigan State University<\/strong><\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/ippsr.msu.edu\/news\/msu-poll-shows-democrats-lead-republicans-coalesce-behind-rogers\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">measures<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.yahoo.com\/news\/politics\/articles\/increasingly-nasty-primary-decide-whether-160029086.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Michigan<\/a> Democratic candidate for Senate Abdul El-Sayed as leading Republican former Rep Mike Rogers (R), 48% &#8211; 44%.<\/li>\n<li>Incumbent Senator Ben Ray Luj\u00e1n (D) leads the write-in winner of the Republican primary, Larry Marker (R), 53% &#8211; 38% in New Mexico according to an <em><strong>Albuquerque Journal<\/strong><\/em> poll. According to local political expert Brian Sanderoff,<br \/>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;Ben Ray Luj\u00e1n has been active in New Mexico politics for decades. &#8230; Whereas his opponent, Larry Marker, he&#8217;s not known among the average New Mexico voter. So, what we have here is sort of like a David vs. Goliath.&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><em>David&#8217;s not doing all that poorly, to be honest<\/em>. I wonder how many conservative voters are just plumb stubborn, and how many are uncomfortable with specific positions of Senator Luj\u00e1n&#8217;s.<\/li>\n<li>And in <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2026\/08\/23\/the-2026-senate-campaign-updates-34\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Alaska<\/a>, the land of Dan Sullivans, Dan Sullivan (R) <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/us-news\/2026\/aug\/24\/dan-sullivan-endorsement-alaska-senate-election\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">has endorsed<\/a> Dan Sullivan (R), incumbent Senator, instead of &#8230; Dan Sullivan (R).<P>There will be a test on this later.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>FIN<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>That should be something to think about. Are the Republicans self-destructing? I suspect so. Will the Democrats follow them down the path?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>CONTINUING IN THE ROLE Rep. Stephanie Bice (R-OK) confirms the presence of an anchor caught in the coral reef: \u201cThe challenge that we have is that we have to get over the narrative that \u2018I don\u2019t like this guy, so I\u2019m going to vote for the Democrat,\u2019\u201d said Rep. Stephanie \u2026 <a class=\"continue-reading-link\" href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2026\/09\/02\/the-2026-senate-campaign-updates-37\/\"> Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr; <\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45647","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45647","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45647"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45647\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":45649,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45647\/revisions\/45649"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45647"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45647"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45647"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}