{"id":45453,"date":"2026-08-18T15:38:30","date_gmt":"2026-08-18T20:38:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/?p=45453"},"modified":"2026-08-18T15:38:30","modified_gmt":"2026-08-18T20:38:30","slug":"the-2026-senate-campaign-updates-33","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2026\/08\/18\/the-2026-senate-campaign-updates-33\/","title":{"rendered":"The 2026 Senate Campaign: Updates"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>CALL IT A NUMBERS GAME<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Old-time blogger Paul Waldman thinks the Democrats will have a good election <em>come November<\/em>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Wisconsin is the most closely divided state in the country; the last three presidential races were all decided there by less than one percentage point. This year, about 491,000 Republican voters cast ballots in the governor\u2019s race, the most important on the ticket. But on the Democratic side, a whopping 792,000 people\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.wpr.org\/elections\/2026-partisan-primary-results\">turned out to vote<\/a>.<em> [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ms.now\/opinion\/democratic-primary-voter-turnout-midterms\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>MS NOW<\/strong><\/a>]<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Etc. etc. Democrats must be encouraged. I don&#8217;t know if independents are filled with enthusiasm, or just feel the Democrats are the lesser of two evils. Not incidentally, in the Minnesota Senate primary, the Democrats had a turnout advantage of 677,301 to 389,726.<\/p>\n<p><strong>THE BEGINNING OF THE BEGINNING, OR IS IT A PEAT BOG DOWN THAT PATH?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Alani Bankhead (D), Democratic nominee for the open Senate seat in <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2026\/08\/14\/the-2026-senate-campaign-updates-32\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Montana<\/a>, who refused to withdraw her nomination for same despite pressure to do so, on the quasi-phenomenon of Democratic nominees dropping out and sometimes endorsing Independent candidates:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Bankhead, an Air Force veteran and a first-time political candidate, said the strategy of running independents is a bad idea that hurts Democrats in the long term.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf you want to rehabilitate the brand, then you do it by rehabilitating the brand, not supporting independents,\u201d she said in an interview. Undermining the voters\u2019 will by asking the Democratic nominee to withdraw is \u201chighly inappropriate\u201d and further upsets voters, she said.\u00a0<em>[<a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/politics\/2026\/08\/15\/why-democrats-are-dropping-out-senate-races-deep-red-states\/?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=newsletter&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_term=\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>WaPo<\/strong><\/a>]<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/PXL_20231028_144330253.jpg?ssl=1\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-45493 alignright\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/PXL_20231028_144330253.jpg?resize=252%2C348&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" width=\"252\" height=\"348\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/PXL_20231028_144330253.jpg?w=1262&amp;ssl=1 1262w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/PXL_20231028_144330253.jpg?resize=217%2C300&amp;ssl=1 217w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/PXL_20231028_144330253.jpg?resize=741%2C1024&amp;ssl=1 741w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/PXL_20231028_144330253.jpg?resize=768%2C1061&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/PXL_20231028_144330253.jpg?resize=1111%2C1536&amp;ssl=1 1111w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/PXL_20231028_144330253.jpg?resize=109%2C150&amp;ssl=1 109w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 252px) 100vw, 252px\" \/><\/a>From that minimal quote I draw the inference that she&#8217;s not considered the overwhelming financial resources Republicans are reputed to have available for this election. Pundits have remarked on how the <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2026\/08\/14\/the-2026-senate-campaign-updates-32\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Texas<\/a> Senate race is going to draw down those resources and possibly cost the Republicans a Senate seat or even two elsewhere. These Democrats who are withdrawing, assessing that the national Democratic brand is repugnant to many independents, even in the face of the downright disastrous amateurism endemic to the Republican Party, are attempting to threaten seats that, not so long ago, were considered <strong>Solid Republican<\/strong>, by removing themselves from the equation that would otherwise result in splitting the vote of those voters who have found Republican behavior disappointing.<\/p>\n<p>Let&#8217;s add the phenomenon of <em>dishonest polling<\/em>. Below, I cite a poll I find a little unbelievable, that showing Pastor Hamilton (R) in a dead heat with Senator Marshall (R) in Kansas. If dishonest polls, which can be difficult to recognize, sway the adversary of the source of the funding for a poll, then financial resources may be expended by the adversary where unnecessary, while starving another race of needed funds.<\/p>\n<p>And could this lead to new political Parties that might replace the doddering collective dementia patients now dominating the political landscape? Former Republican and former Indianapolis Mayor Greg Ballard is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wishtv.com\/news\/politics\/greg-ballard-lincoln-party\/\">starting a new Party<\/a>, so the answer is a definite <strong>maybe<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>RUN DOWN THE AISLE, CONTESTANT!<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>This is <em><strong>Jeopardy!<\/strong> <\/em>and <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2026\/08\/14\/the-2026-senate-campaign-updates-32\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">you&#8217;re running<\/a> for the <strong>Senate Campaign<\/strong> news! Is that a mixed metaphor or just game show dementia?<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>I missed this one in rarely polled <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2026\/03\/07\/the-2026-senate-campaign-updates-5\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Arkansas<\/a>: On 5 Aug, <em><strong>2040 Strategy Group<\/strong><\/em>, <em>sponsored by<\/em> Democratic Senate nominee Hallie Shoffner, released a <a href=\"https:\/\/arktimes.com\/arkansas-blog\/2026\/08\/05\/dem-senate-hopeful-shoffner-pulls-promising-poll-numbers-against-unlikeable-cotton\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">poll<\/a> showing incumbent Senator Cotton (R) leading Shoffner 46% &#8211; 43%, within the margin of error of \u00b14 points. Money quote:<br \/>\n<blockquote><p>The statewide poll of 586 likely Arkansas voters, conducted in late July by the 2040 Strategy Group, was also able to quantify something you probably already knew: The bloodthirsty and charisma-deficient automaton that is Tom Cotton is just not a very likeable guy.<em> [Austin Gelder, Editor, <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/arktimes.com\/arkansas-blog\/2026\/08\/05\/dem-senate-hopeful-shoffner-pulls-promising-poll-numbers-against-unlikeable-cotton\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>Arkansas Times<\/strong><\/a><em>]<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>I assume this is considered an opinion piece by Gelder. More importantly, not knowing <em><strong>2040 Strategy Group<\/strong><\/em>, and the poll being sponsored by an interested party, implies to me a high doubtfulness quotient. I&#8217;ve never cared for Senator Cotton, so it&#8217;s nice to see it&#8217;s a shared perception and not just a personal quirk on my part. But believing these results are accurate for the late July timeframe is a bit of a stretch.<\/li>\n<li>A new <em><strong>Fox News<\/strong> <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mediaite.com\/politics\/major-red-flag-new-fox-news-poll-sounds-alarm-bells-in-michigan-for-democrats\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">poll<\/a> in <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2026\/08\/07\/the-2026-senate-campaign-updates-30\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Michigan<\/a> gives former Rep Rogers (R) a 51% &#8211; 47% lead over Abdul El-Sayed.<\/li>\n<li>In <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2026\/06\/04\/the-2026-senate-campaign-updates-17\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ohio<\/a> former Senator Sherrod Brown (D) still holds a large lead over incumbent Senator Jon Husted (R), 53% to 45%, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.msn.com\/en-us\/news\/politics\/fox-news-poll-economic-anxiety-and-candidate-concerns-define-ohio-senate-race\/ar-AA2a3WOG\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">according<\/a> to <em><strong>Fox News<\/strong><\/em>. Money quote:<br \/>\n<blockquote><p><a href=\"https:\/\/foxnews.com\/category\/person\/donald-trump\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Donald Trump<\/a>\u00a0won Ohio by 11 points in 2024. Still, a vulnerability for Husted is his connection to Trump, as 51% are concerned that he\u2019s too close to the president. That\u2019s up 5 points from 46% who felt that way about Husted in June. Plus, fewer voters, 44%, are worried Brown is too closely tied to the Democratic Party establishment.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Some entity called <em><strong>Wedgewood Polls<\/strong><\/em> <a style=\"cursor: pointer !important; user-select: none !important;\" href=\"https:\/\/drive.google.com\/file\/d\/1rP-26-yqNx9jy_gRqoLDmgJgzm5X8a4O\/view\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">gives<\/a> Brown a smaller lead of 48% &#8211; 44%. Take that for what you will.<\/li>\n<li>Endorsements are piling up for the special <em><strong>GOP<\/strong><\/em> primary runoff of 25 August in South Carolina. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wistv.com\/2026\/08\/14\/endorsements-pile-up-graham-norman-sc-senate-primary-runoff\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">According<\/a> to <em><strong>WIS10<\/strong><\/em>, Senator D. Graham (R) has added vanquished foe Russell Fry (R), Lt Governor Pamela Evette (R), Senator Thune (R-SD), Senator Cotton (R-AR), and others to her list of endorsers. Rival Rep Norman (R) has former Governor Nikki Haley (R-SC), former Senator Jim DeMint (R-SC), former candidate for this position and current Representative Nancy Mace (R-SC), Senator Rick Scott (R-FL) and Senator Mike Lee (R-UT), along with others.\n<p>What does an endorsement get you these days? I rarely hear it noised about as any kind of factor, unless it&#8217;s Trump, who endorsed Senator D. Graham a couple of weeks ago. This may not mean much at all.<\/li>\n<li>In <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2026\/08\/07\/the-2026-senate-campaign-updates-30\/\">Kansas<\/a>, <em><strong>Public Policy Polling<\/strong><\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/sunflowerstatejournal.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Kansas-SMP-poll-1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">gives<\/a> Senator Marshall (R) a mere one point lead, a shockingly small 46% &#8211; 45% margin over Pastor Adam Hamilton (D), and further states that, after familiarizing their respondents with biographical information, <em>Hamilton leads Marshall<\/em> 45% &#8211; 44%, which I&#8217;m sure is within the margin of error. <em><strong>Public Policy Polling&#8217;s<\/strong><\/em> accuracy is not known to me, however, so season that report with generous salt.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2026\/08\/14\/the-2026-senate-campaign-updates-32\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Alaska<\/a> Democratic Senate candidate and former Rep Mary Peltola (D) has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.alaskasnewssource.com\/2026\/08\/14\/peltola-pushes-back-against-kamala-harris-support-saying-she-isnt-looking-an-endorsement-former-vice-president\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>rejected<\/strong><\/a> the former Senator and VP, Kamala Harris (D).<br \/>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cMary isn\u2019t seeking endorsements from anyone from the Lower 48 \u2013 her focus is and always will be Alaska,\u201d a Peltola spokesperson said in a statement. \u201cThat\u2019s why she\u2019s proud to have the endorsement of AFGE, the Alaska AFL-CIO, Alaska IBEW Local 1547, and more than 10,000 Alaskans who have signed up to volunteer with the campaign.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Yes, there is a poll out for Alaska, but <em><strong>Change Research<\/strong><\/em> had a poor rating from <em><strong>FiveThirtyEight<\/strong><\/em>, so I&#8217;ll be ignoring it. But this is worth mentioning:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Amid reports of a campaign shakeup on the eve of Tuesday\u2019s primary election in Alaska, a spokesperson for Democrat Mary Peltola acknowledged that she has changed top staff as she faces a pivotal race against Republican U.S. Sen. Dan S. Sullivan.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe campaign has undergone staffing updates as we transition into the general election and we appreciate the contributions of everyone who built the winning campaign to send Mary to the US Senate this November,\u201d a spokesperson for Mary Peltola\u2019s campaign said in an emailed statement.<em> [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.adn.com\/politics\/2026\/08\/17\/in-alaskas-key-us-senate-race-peltola-updates-top-campaign-staff-just-before-primary\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>Anchorage Daily News<\/strong><\/a>]<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Interesting, but I think Peltola is guaranteed a spot in the general election, as four are available.<\/li>\n<li>Relying on the accuracy of primary election polls from even the best pollsters has been a dicey proposition so far this season, so don&#8217;t put any cash on this <em><strong>UMass-Amherst<\/strong><\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/htv-prod-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/files\/markeymoultontoplinesaug2026masspoll-6a82d54db1726.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">poll<\/a> of <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2026\/07\/07\/the-2026-senate-campaign-updates-23\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Massachusetts<\/a>. It shows Senator Markey (D) leading Rep Moulton (D), 60% &#8211; 32%. If we choose to consider the poll to be accurate, it appears primary voters have resolved any concerns over Senator Markey&#8217;s age. The same poll shows both Markey and Moulton with commanding leads over presumptive Republican nominee John Deaton. No surprise there.\n<p><em><strong>Suffolk University<\/strong><\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.suffolk.edu\/-\/media\/suffolk\/documents\/academics\/research-at-suffolk\/suprc\/polls\/massachusetts2\/2026\/8_18_2026_massachusetts_dem_primary_statewide_marginals.pdf?la=en&amp;hash=E66E7A0ACB49CA068728144EC730E8EAA275A6E5\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">gives<\/a> Senator Markey a substantially smaller margin of 52% &#8211; 38% over Representative Moulton. Back when they existed, <em><strong>FiveThirtyEight<\/strong><\/em> gave <em><strong>Suffolk<\/strong><\/em> a rating of 2.9\/3, so Suffolk was in the <em>highly respected<\/em> category.<\/li>\n<li>In lightly polled <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2026\/04\/24\/the-2026-senate-campaign-updates-11\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Rhode Island<\/a>, incumbent Senator Jack Reed (D) has a commanding lead over his primary challengers, similar to a previous poll by <em><strong>University of New Hampshire<\/strong><\/em> back in April, <a href=\"https:\/\/salve.edu\/documents\/pell-center-vov-august-2026-report\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">according<\/a> to <em><strong>Salve Regina University<\/strong><\/em>.<\/li>\n<li>Senator Collins (R) of Maine, running for re-election, has lost an ally.<br \/>\n<blockquote><p>Planned Parenthood\u2019s political action committee Monday announced new ads attacking Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, the first of a campaign totaling more than $600,000 to oppose the vulnerable Republican incumbent.<\/p>\n<p>The ad buy is the largest investment from Planned Parenthood Votes across any state this cycle, according to Federal Election Commission records. Planned Parenthood Votes will use the campaign to hammer Collins on her vote to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh, one of the three justices nominated by President Donald Trump who helped form the majority that would later overturn Roe v. Wade.<em> [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/politics\/2026\/08\/17\/planned-parenthood-spend-more-than-600000-against-susan-collins-maine\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>WaPo<\/strong><\/a>]<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>I have not kept up with <em><strong>Planned Parenthood<\/strong><\/em>, so I don&#8217;t know if they&#8217;ve followed some other liberal organizations so far off the far end that they&#8217;re repellant to independent voters. That will affect how independent voters react, even though the presented concern is directly connected to <em><strong>Planned Parenthood<\/strong><\/em> and I expect should have a strong effect on pro-choice voters, especially those whose loved ones were put at risk through pregnancy.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>TODAY IS &#8230;<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&#8230; 18 August 2026, and it&#8217;s primary day for a few States. For Senate, Florida, Alaska, and Wyoming will be the focus of the political sorts; South Carolina&#8217;s special primary is next week.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>CALL IT A NUMBERS GAME Old-time blogger Paul Waldman thinks the Democrats will have a good election come November: Wisconsin is the most closely divided state in the country; the last three presidential races were all decided there by less than one percentage point. This year, about 491,000 Republican voters \u2026 <a class=\"continue-reading-link\" href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2026\/08\/18\/the-2026-senate-campaign-updates-33\/\"> Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr; <\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45453","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45453","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45453"}],"version-history":[{"count":11,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45453\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":45499,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45453\/revisions\/45499"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45453"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45453"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45453"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}