{"id":45404,"date":"2026-08-14T10:11:45","date_gmt":"2026-08-14T15:11:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/?p=45404"},"modified":"2026-08-14T10:11:45","modified_gmt":"2026-08-14T15:11:45","slug":"the-2026-senate-campaign-updates-32","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2026\/08\/14\/the-2026-senate-campaign-updates-32\/","title":{"rendered":"The 2026 Senate Campaign: Updates"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>THE MORE THINGS DON&#8217;T CHANGE<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&#8230; the deeper the swamp becomes? The AG position at the DOJ has been officially filled by Todd Blanche, formerly personal attorney for the President, who mysteriously worked hard to be approved by a skeptical Congress. Republican Senators Murkowski and Collins voted against him.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Collins called Blanche \u201ca capable lawyer,\u201d but she said the Department of Justice (DOJ) under his leadership [as assistant and later acting AG] has \u201cbecome increasingly political.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>She cited several actions that she believe have \u201cfurther eroded the department\u2019s independence\u201d as \u201cthe basis for my vote to oppose his confirmation.\u201d<em> [<a href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/homenews\/senate\/6009239-collins-opposes-blanche-ag-confirmation\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>The Hill<\/strong><\/a>]<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>President Trump was furious with Murkowski, but not Collins.<\/p>\n<p><em>Trump&#8217;s War<\/em> continues to burn, <strong>U.S.S. Lincoln<\/strong> is setting records for deployments and consequential drop in morale, public disapproval of the President continues to mount, and VP Vance looks like a deer in the headlights, when he&#8217;s seen at all.<\/p>\n<p>Who wants to vote for chaos?<\/p>\n<p><strong>NATIONAL UNDERCLOTHES<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Try not to have accidents, <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2026\/08\/07\/the-2026-senate-campaign-updates-30\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">unlike last time<\/a>.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>In what might have been the marquee event of the last week or so, the 11 August Republican special primary election in <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2026\/08\/07\/the-2026-senate-campaign-updates-30\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">South Carolina<\/a> did not <a href=\"https:\/\/ballotpedia.org\/United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Carolina,_2026\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">yield<\/a> an outright winner and nominee. Senator D. Graham (R) took 32.8%, Rep Norman (R) won 23.5%, followed by Russell Fry, Mark Sanford, and Mark Lynch. The first two advance to a run off, scheduled for 25 August. Notably, 40% of the vote might be classified as &#8220;not Darline Graham,&#8221; so I think Rep Norman has a shot at winning the special primary, and if he were to do so he&#8217;d be the presumptive Senator from South Carolina &#8211; and, by losing, D. Graham would become yet another Trump-endorsee who found the burden too great to bear. Can Rep Norman do it?\n<p>In other news, Senator Tim Scott (R-SC) is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/live-updates\/2026\/08\/12\/congress\/south-carolina-primary-nrsc-darline-graham-01035188\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">endorsing<\/a> Senator D. Graham for the seat, while businessman Mark Lynch, who came in fifth place in the primary, endorsed Rep Norman.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2026\/08\/07\/the-2026-senate-campaign-updates-30\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Minnesota<\/a> held its <a href=\"https:\/\/ballotpedia.org\/United_States_Senate_election_in_Minnesota,_2026\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">primaries<\/a> on 11 August, and for the Senate Michelle Tafoya won the <em><strong>GOP<\/strong><\/em> nomination over <em><strong>GOP<\/strong><\/em>-endorsed Adam Schwarze, who did beat the polls with a 23.5% portion of the votes, much better than said polls predicted. The Democratic primary voters selected Lt Governor Flanagan over Rep Craig, and by a significant margin: 58.9% to 39.5%, close to 20 points. The last few polls had suggested an exceedingly tight race in which Rep Craig&#8217;s superior finances might provide the advantage, but no; professional political analysts credit Flanagan&#8217;s ground game. I understand from some voters that they were offended by the tail of commercials from Craig, so perhaps Craig or her allies misunderstood Minnesota sensibilities.\n<p>Mz Tafoya, as I heard on <em><strong>MPR<\/strong><\/em>, proclaims herself beholden to neither Party nor President, and supports abortion rights. I see this as a necessary beginning in a State in which most voters consider the President to be a moral and practical failure, but I doubt Tafoya will win the Senate seat.<\/li>\n<li>In <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2026\/08\/07\/the-2026-senate-campaign-updates-30\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Montana<\/a> Seth Bodnar&#8217;s (I) and Rep Bankhead&#8217;s (D) <a href=\"https:\/\/montanafreepress.org\/2026\/08\/10\/bankhead-still-in-the-running\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">opportunities<\/a> to withdraw in favor of the other have passed. Can either beat both the other and the third candidate with a real chance, Kurt Alme (R)? Seems unlikely, but have a go at it, folks.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div style=\"width: 228px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/oti-roy-cooper.jpg?ssl=1\" alt=\"\" width=\"218\" height=\"218\" \/><p class=\"wp-caption-text\"><em>On The Issues: <a href=\"https:\/\/ontheissues.org\/Roy_Cooper.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Gov Roy Cooper (D-NC)<\/a>.<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n<p><em><strong>Elon University<\/strong><\/em> is <a href=\"https:\/\/eloncdn.blob.core.windows.net\/eu3\/sites\/819\/2026\/08\/Elon-Poll-1-fall-2026-NR-V3-8-12-26.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">giving<\/a> former Gov Roy Cooper (D) a 53% &#8211; 42% lead over Michael Whatley (R) in the race for the open <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2026\/08\/07\/the-2026-senate-campaign-updates-30\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">North Carolina<\/a> Senate seat. I am not familiar with <em><strong>Elon University<\/strong><\/em>, but those numbers seem plausible. Along with those are numbers indicating the President is underwater in the job approval department in the estimation of North Carolina voters by 18 points, so it&#8217;s no surprise the Republican candidate, Mr. Whatley, is trailing badly. Gov Cooper (D) is not a moderate, see right, making the general run of North Carolina Senate polls even more interesting, and suggesting the <em><strong>GOP<\/strong><\/em> has really shot itself in the foot by following Mr. Trump, rather than tossing him out on his ass.<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>VoteVets<\/strong><\/em> is stepping into the <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2026\/07\/07\/the-2026-senate-campaign-updates-23\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Alaska<\/a> Senate race:<br \/>\n<blockquote><p>VoteVets Action Fund is going into Alaska, launching a $225,000 ad buy against Sen. Dan Sullivan for his votes against reining in President Donald Trump\u2019s Iran war powers, according to details first shared with Semafor.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s the start of what\u2019s expected to be a larger VoteVets campaign against Sullivan, who is facing former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola in a highly competitive race.<\/p>\n<p>The\u00a0<a class=\"_linkEmbed_1pt7l_31\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ntCr5O5xSdQ\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ad<\/a>\u00a0ties Sullivan\u2019s Iran votes to rising costs in Alaska: \u201cNine-dollar-a-gallon gas in Dillingham, nine bucks a pound of ground beef in Anchorage. That\u2019s not the cost of living. That\u2019s the cost of Dan Sullivan\u2019s votes,\u201d the ad says. \u201cSullivan voted a dozen times for this war in Iran.\u201d<em> [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.semafor.com\/article\/08\/11\/2026\/votevets-goes-after-sullivan-for-iran-votes\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>Semafor<\/strong><\/a>]<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>I do have to wonder if there is a <em>quid pro quo<\/em>, stated or not, when these independent entities intrude on races. But dollars are a necessary-but-not-sufficient component of a successful campaign.<\/li>\n<li>In <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2026\/08\/07\/the-2026-senate-campaign-updates-30\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Texas<\/a> an <em><strong>Emerson College<\/strong><\/em> poll is <a href=\"https:\/\/emersoncollegepolling.com\/texas-2026-poll-paxton-and-talarico\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">giving<\/a> Republican Ken Paxton a 47% &#8211; 46% lead over James Talarico (D), calling it a <em>dead heat<\/em>. Under <em>Party Affiliation<\/em> Republicans outnumber Democrats, 47.6% to 32.4%, and the power-holding Independents\/others are at 20%, suggesting a number of Republicans are either voting Talarico or not voting at all. I can&#8217;t fault their position.<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>Fox News Poll<\/strong><\/em> is <a href=\"https:\/\/static.foxnews.com\/foxnews.com\/content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/fox_august-6-10-2026_maine_topline_august-12-release-1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">joining<\/a> other polling services in giving <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2026\/08\/01\/the-2026-senate-campaign-updates-31\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Maine&#8217;s<\/a> Troy Jackson (D) a small lead over Senator Collins (R) of 48% &#8211; 46%, with a margin of error of \u00b13 points, or a <em>dead heat<\/em>.<\/li>\n<li>Don&#8217;t get excited and\/or appalled, depending on ideology, by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thebullfinchgroup.com\/post\/for-immediate-release-independent-todd-achilles-within-4-points-among-likely-voters\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">this poll<\/a> from Bullfinch Group, even if it does put the <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2026\/08\/01\/the-2026-senate-campaign-updates-31\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Idaho<\/a> Senate seat in play, placing Todd Achilles (I) only four points behind Senator Risch (R).<br \/>\n<blockquote><p>Recent statewide polling of likely 2026 voters in Idaho shows Independent Todd Achilles in an exceptionally strong position against incumbent Republican Senator Jim Risch. Achilles trails Risch by just 4 percentage points while boasting a stellar net favorability rating and huge room for growth.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Why not? My posts from 2024 indicate Bullfinch had poor accuracy and might have been partisan. Such problems can be reformed away, of course, but I have no reason to assume such reforms have taken place.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>ANY FINAL THOUGHTS?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Not really. I don&#8217;t have to be entertaining or profound in every <strong>Campaign Update<\/strong>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>THE MORE THINGS DON&#8217;T CHANGE &#8230; the deeper the swamp becomes? The AG position at the DOJ has been officially filled by Todd Blanche, formerly personal attorney for the President, who mysteriously worked hard to be approved by a skeptical Congress. Republican Senators Murkowski and Collins voted against him. Collins \u2026 <a class=\"continue-reading-link\" href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2026\/08\/14\/the-2026-senate-campaign-updates-32\/\"> Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr; <\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45404","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45404","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45404"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45404\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":45452,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45404\/revisions\/45452"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45404"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45404"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45404"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}