{"id":45282,"date":"2026-07-28T21:29:28","date_gmt":"2026-07-29T02:29:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/?p=45282"},"modified":"2026-07-28T21:29:28","modified_gmt":"2026-07-29T02:29:28","slug":"the-2026-senate-campaign-updates-29","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2026\/07\/28\/the-2026-senate-campaign-updates-29\/","title":{"rendered":"The 2026 Senate Campaign: Updates"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>THEY&#8217;RE NOT CHESS PIECES, ALTHOUGH SOME WOULD LOOK GOOD CARVED OUT OF WOOD<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>President Trump, in his desperation to treat Republican Senators like his personal chess set, may be dooming his midterm results, instead.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Trump on Wednesday told rally-goers in Georgia to \u201ccall John Thune\u201d over the Senate GOP\u2019s inability to pass a partisan election bill, known as the SAVE America Act, and White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt on Thursday said the president\u2019s patience with the South Dakota Republican is \u201crunning out.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>But if Trump\u2019s rhetoric is meant to drive Republican voters to the polls this fall \u2014 and some allies believe it will only increase ahead of November \u2014 it does little to change the reality in the Senate, where the SAVE America Act still doesn\u2019t have the votes to pass. Instead, many Republicans on Thursday came to their leader\u2019s defense, acknowledging an unwinnable standoff between the president and their 53-seat majority.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThis idea that he can just command members of the Republican conference to get in line is just a fantasy. So I think it\u2019s unfair,\u201d said Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), who ran against Thune for majority leader in 2024 and then lost his primary to a Trump-endorsed challenger earlier this year. \u201cI don\u2019t know who it was that sold the president on this idea, that this was obtainable, but it\u2019s creating a circular firing squad for Republicans.\u201d<em> [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2026\/07\/23\/trump-john-thune-senate-tension-01010746\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>Politico<\/strong><\/a>]<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/PXL_20260315_142132622-scaled.jpg?ssl=1\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-45308 alignright\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/PXL_20260315_142132622-scaled.jpg?resize=256%2C339&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" width=\"256\" height=\"339\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/PXL_20260315_142132622-scaled.jpg?resize=113%2C150&amp;ssl=1 113w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/PXL_20260315_142132622-scaled.jpg?zoom=2&amp;resize=256%2C339&amp;ssl=1 512w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/PXL_20260315_142132622-scaled.jpg?zoom=3&amp;resize=256%2C339&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 256px) 100vw, 256px\" \/><\/a>President Trump may view this as a matter of political survival. If the Democrats win Congress, he may believe they&#8217;ll impeach him, and, if so, a conviction in the Senate would result not only in his being barred from the Presidency, but also in the resumption of legal proceedings against him at both State and Federal levels, up to and including imprisonment. Furthermore, investigations may resume, and if the rest of his family has been involved in nefarious deeds in the pursuit of money, they, too, could find their freedoms endangered.<\/p>\n<p>But let&#8217;s take this a bit further. As a self-proclaimed billionaire, he&#8217;s made it clear that he views himself as a superior human who shouldn&#8217;t be subject to the same rules as us mere <em><a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Hoi_polloi\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">hoi-polloi<\/a><\/em>. Now, it&#8217;s not unknown for folks to band together around some shared characteristic, even when they don&#8217;t like certain members of the group, because they view that shared characteristic as more important than their personal dislikes.<\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s not unlikely that such a group, bonded by their immense wealth, would become very concerned if Trump&#8217;s freedoms were endangered, because that would imply their own vulnerability to government restrictions. What would happen then? Open warfare? Covert warfare? Assassinations?<\/p>\n<p>And will any of this elaborate conspiracy theory occur? I still see the Democrats flipping the House; their chances in the Senate are much less, and even if they do take the Senate, persuading enough Republicans to convict their President seems unlikely, as Tillis, Cassidy, and Cornyn will have been replaced, although listing their replacements could lead to some interesting scenarios.<\/p>\n<p>But, in general, <strong>GOP<\/strong> Senators are becoming quite unhappy with the President. The President may be forced into unexpected concessions under threat from <strong>GOP<\/strong> Senators post-election. The horse-trading may become a spectacular sport.<\/p>\n<p><strong>FUTURE REALITIES HANGING OVER THEIR HEADS<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>All of which leads up to the dawning realization among the <strong>GOP<\/strong> faithful that their understanding of the American world is perhaps not up to snuff.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Republican pollsters and political groups are raising the alarm that their party faces a listless and demotivated base ahead of November\u2019s midterm elections.<\/p>\n<p>A raft of discouraging data from polling, door knocking and focus groups is unsettling Republicans as their party heads into a midterm election season that would be challenging no matter what, given President Donald Trump\u2019s low standing in polls and the fact that the party in control in Washington almost always loses seats.<\/p>\n<p>The lack of enthusiasm is reaching deep into Republicans\u2019 loyal base, spreading to the party\u2019s most consistent voters \u2014 who have shown up to vote in all of the past four primaries and general elections, according to an analysis done by Americans for Prosperity Action, a conservative super PAC affiliated with billionaire Charles Koch. This new issue with the base adds to the party\u2019s more enduring problem of turning out less-frequent voters who support Trump but often skip midterm elections.<em> [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/politics\/2026\/07\/26\/republican-enthusiasm-problem-hits-even-core-voters\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>WaPo<\/strong><\/a>]<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>The dangers of the epistemic bubble, eh, the mistake of talking only to ideologically similar folks? Yes, although the Democrats have problems of their own, such as immigration and autocratic inclinations.<\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s far too late for new Parties supplanting the old, but maybe in 2028.<\/p>\n<p><strong>AND NOW THE MAIN EVENT<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Last week&#8217;s main event was held in Paris. <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2026\/07\/23\/the-2026-senate-campaign-updates-28\/\">Paris, Texas<\/a>. It was called the Ephemera Championships, and the trophy was constructed of solidified invisible ink.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2026\/07\/23\/the-2026-senate-campaign-updates-28\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Michigan<\/a> is a center of Senate campaign activity in this issue, as open seats often prove to be.\n<ol>\n<li>First up is former Rep Mike Rogers (R), presumptive nominee of the Michigan Republicans, and, well, I&#8217;ll call it his <em>big, monarchical mouth<\/em>:<br \/>\n<blockquote><p>Republican U.S. Senate candidate Mike Rogers has found a new reason for Michiganders to open their wallets: He wants them to help protect Elon Musk from congressional accountability.<\/p>\n<p>In a fundraising appeal sent Saturday, Rogers warned supporters that Democrats would use control of the Senate to subpoena Musk over his role in the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, which carried out sweeping cuts across the federal government.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhen you stand with my Senate campaign today, you are directly shielding Elon Musk,\u201d Rogers wrote. He then asked for an \u201cimmediate, urgent contribution right now to protect Elon and save America.\u201d<em> [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.metrotimes.com\/news\/mike-rogers-begs-michiganders-for-money-to-protect-elon-musk\/\"><strong>Detroit Metro Times<\/strong><\/a>]<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Monarchs are, more than often, shielded from most forms of accountability. Just call Rogers a <em>King George lover<\/em>. See if he twitches. While Republican voters may consider all Democrats unacceptable, independents should see this as a profoundly un-American statement, and vote for someone other than Rogers.<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>CNN<\/strong><\/em> has a subscriber article entitled, <em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2026\/07\/23\/politics\/michigan-senate-race-mike-rogers-haley-stevens-abdul-el-sayed\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">In private call, Michigan Republican running for Senate sees himself in \u2018good shape\u2019 against one particular Democrat.<\/a><\/em>\u00a0 The Republican is former Rep Rogers, and that Democrat is Abdul el-Sayed, one of the two remaining Democrats in the Michigan Senate primary. Is it a ploy or an unvarnished opinion? The latter, I suspect.<\/li>\n<li>Third, Governor Whitmer (D-MI) is in the endorsement sweepstakes and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/politics\/2026\/07\/24\/michigans-whitmer-endorses-key-senate-race\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">has endorsed<\/a> El-Sayed&#8217;s primary rival, Rep Haley Stevens (D), for the Michigan Senate seat.<\/li>\n<li>\n<div id=\"attachment_45304\" style=\"width: 197px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/oti-haley-stevens.jpg?ssl=1\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-45304\" class=\"wp-image-45304\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/oti-haley-stevens.jpg?resize=187%2C187&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" width=\"187\" height=\"187\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/oti-haley-stevens.jpg?w=351&amp;ssl=1 351w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/oti-haley-stevens.jpg?resize=300%2C300&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/oti-haley-stevens.jpg?resize=150%2C150&amp;ssl=1 150w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 187px) 100vw, 187px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-45304\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><em><strong>On The Issues<\/strong>: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ontheissues.org\/Senate\/Haley_Stevens.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Rep Haley Stevens (D-MI)<\/a>.<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n<p>I don&#8217;t generally pay attention to polls from <em><strong>Glengariff Group<\/strong><\/em>, owing to their poor evaluation results when <em><strong>FiveThirtyEight<\/strong><\/em> was still around, but I was intrigued by their <a href=\"https:\/\/mea.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/MICHIGAN-EDUCATION-SURVEY-REPORT-FINAL54.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">latest poll<\/a> in Michigan. It&#8217;s not a direct comparison of the intra-Party rivals in the Democratic primary, but more of a message to primary voters: Rep Stevens (D) has a 46-45% lead, within the margin of error of \u00b14.0 points, over presumptive Republican nominee and former Rep Mike Rogers (R), but Stevens rival Abdul El-Sayed (D) trails <strong>Rep Rogers, not Stevens<\/strong>, by 10 points, 49%-39%. If we assume <em><strong>Glengariff<\/strong><\/em> slanted their results, then this may be another sign of the coming rift between progressives and moderate Democrats. However, the fly in this conspiracy ointment is summarized to the right &amp; above: Rep Haley&#8217;s position strikes me as more progressive than moderate, even though <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ms.now\/news\/news-analysis\/michigan-trump-democrats-primary-senate\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">she&#8217;s described<\/a> as the moderate and El-Sayed as the progressive.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/li>\n<li>The <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2026\/07\/23\/the-2026-senate-campaign-updates-28\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Maine<\/a> Democratic Party Senate nominee is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/politics\/2026\/07\/25\/democrats-pick-new-senate-candidate-maine-aftermath-platner-debacle\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">officially<\/a> Troy Jackson. For whatever &#8220;official&#8221; is worth, as Graham Platner was also official, having won the primary. If Jackson <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/politics\/2026\/07\/20\/democrat-set-replace-platner-maine-led-state-senate-with-temper\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">is as volatile as described<\/a>, we may yet see another nominee from the Maine Democrats. If such happens, I may have to make vaguely insulting comparisons to the process of replacing former Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy (R-CA).<\/li>\n<li>The appointment of Trump-endorsed Darline Graham (R-SC) to her late brother&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2026\/07\/21\/the-2026-senate-campaign-updates-27\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">South Carolina<\/a> Senate seat, and her reported interest in the primary for the next general election in November, has not yet resulted in the clearing of the field. Perhaps she&#8217;s seen as a weak candidate in this context.The <a href=\"https:\/\/ballotpedia.org\/United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Carolina,_2026\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">primary special election<\/a> is scheduled for 11 August.<\/li>\n<li>In <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2026\/07\/23\/the-2026-senate-campaign-updates-28\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Texas<\/a> pollster <em><strong>Texas Public Opinion Research<\/strong><\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/texaspublicopinionresearch.substack.com\/p\/new-poll-james-talaricos-lead-over\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">gives<\/a> James Talarico (D) a 45%-40% lead over state AG Ken Paxton (R), with a margin of error of \u00b13.4 points. I wonder if Senator Cornyn (R) would do better?Perhaps <em><strong>Texas Public Opinion Research<\/strong><\/em> should put former Governor Ventura (I-MN) on their Board of Directors, as he was adamant that politics is not a horserace, and yet there it is:<br \/>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Paxton v. Talarico Horserace<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/li>\n<li>I don&#8217;t see much out of <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2026\/06\/22\/the-2026-senate-campaign-updates-21\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Montana<\/a>, so <em><strong>GQR<\/strong><\/em>, which had a respectable, if not amazing, rating from <em><strong>FiveThirtyEight<\/strong><\/em>, is worth <a href=\"https:\/\/www.270towin.com\/uploads\/GQR_Montana_072626.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">reporting<\/a>. They give US District Attorney Kurt Alme (R) a 41% share, Seth Bodnar (I) 27%, and Rep Bankhead (D) 22%. Bankhead&#8217;s name recognition is abysmal at 63% and, until she repairs that omission she&#8217;ll not have a chance. Two other polls from other pollsters have similar numbers. These numbers speak for themselves, but it&#8217;s not simple to predict those of tomorrow.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>THAT IRRITATING LAST WORD<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Montana will not be flipped unless Bodnar drops out, and Maine is slowly fading from Democrats&#8217; hopes. Still, there&#8217;s plenty of time for something to happen.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>THEY&#8217;RE NOT CHESS PIECES, ALTHOUGH SOME WOULD LOOK GOOD CARVED OUT OF WOOD President Trump, in his desperation to treat Republican Senators like his personal chess set, may be dooming his midterm results, instead. Trump on Wednesday told rally-goers in Georgia to \u201ccall John Thune\u201d over the Senate GOP\u2019s inability \u2026 <a class=\"continue-reading-link\" href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2026\/07\/28\/the-2026-senate-campaign-updates-29\/\"> Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr; <\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45282","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45282","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45282"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45282\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":45309,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45282\/revisions\/45309"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45282"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45282"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45282"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}