{"id":44426,"date":"2026-04-01T06:15:36","date_gmt":"2026-04-01T11:15:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/?p=44426"},"modified":"2026-05-03T15:13:30","modified_gmt":"2026-05-03T20:13:30","slug":"the-2026-senate-campaign-updates-12","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2026\/04\/01\/the-2026-senate-campaign-updates-12\/","title":{"rendered":"The 2026 Senate Campaign: Updates"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3><strong>The Anchor In Their Underwear<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>I have mentioned this before, but President Trump continues to slide towards the bubbling lava pit of incompetency and American contempt. James Downie of <em><strong>MS NOW<\/strong><\/em> provides a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ms.now\/opinion\/trump-latest-polls-george-w-bush\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">helpful summation<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>There\u2019s no other way to put it: The\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/apnorc.org\/projects\/fewer-approve-of-trumps-handling-of-the-economy\/\">most recent Associated Press-NORC poll<\/a>\u00a0was a disaster for President Donald Trump. Sixty-seven percent of Americans disapproved of his presidency, up seven percentage points in one month. His approval was down five percentage points over the same period to 33%. On immigration, his strongest issue, his approval was 40%; on the war with Iran, 32%; on the economy, 30%; and on cost of living, 23%.<\/p>\n<p>That was just a single survey, but several brutal new polls have been released in the past week.\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net\/documents\/econTabReport_Ty7ikPd.pdf\">YouGov<\/a>\u00a0put Trump\u2019s approval\/disapproval at 37%\/59%,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/04\/23\/trumps-approval-rating-on-economy-and-overall-falls-to-lowest-of-his-two-terms-cnbc-survey-shows.html\">CNBC<\/a>\u00a0put it at 40%\/58% and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/data\/trumps-approval-rating-2025-01-21\/\">Reuters-Ipsos<\/a>\u00a0put it at 36%\/62%. The president has been below 40% in\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.natesilver.net\/p\/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin\">most polling averages<\/a>, such as\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/polls\/donald-trump-approval-rating-polls.html\">The New York Times\u2019<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/fiftyplusone.news\/polls\/approval\/president\">G. Elliott Morris\u2019 FiftyPlusOne<\/a>. Instead of a \u201cvibe shift\u201d that permanently reshaped the parties\u2019 coalitions, the voting groups who moved right in 2024 have fled the president in droves.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>And, a little later,<\/p>\n<div class=\"teaser-content\">\n<div class=\"wpds-c-PJLV article-body type-text\" data-qa=\"article-body\">\n<blockquote>\n<p class=\"wpds-c-heFNVF wpds-c-heFNVF-iPJLV-css overrideStyles font-copy\" dir=\"null\" data-apitype=\"text\" data-contentid=\"7W6TOABTZNFUVPTJDQ2VTXYPVU\" data-el=\"text\">Six months ahead of the November midterm elections, the Republican Party faces a deteriorating political climate, with Americans broadly dissatisfied with President Donald Trump\u2019s leadership on the Iran war and other key issues and an electorate in which Democrats are significantly more motivated to vote, according to a\u00a0<a class=\"js-itid-click\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/tablet\/2026\/04\/30\/april-24-28-2026-washington-post-abc-news-ipsos-poll\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wpds-c-heFNVF wpds-c-heFNVF-iPJLV-css overrideStyles font-copy\" dir=\"null\" data-apitype=\"text\" data-contentid=\"7W6TOABTZNFUVPTJDQ2VTXYPVU\" data-el=\"text\">Trump\u2019s approval on economic issues, which were critical to his political comeback in 2024, has fallen since he launched the Iran war in late February.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wpds-c-heFNVF wpds-c-heFNVF-iPJLV-css overrideStyles font-copy\" dir=\"null\" data-apitype=\"text\" data-contentid=\"7W6TOABTZNFUVPTJDQ2VTXYPVU\" data-el=\"text\">Americans disapprove of his handling of the situation with Iran by 66 percent to 33 percent. His rating on the economy has declined by seven points, to 34 percent, as gas prices have spiked. His approval rating on inflation has fallen five points in that time to 27 percent and his lowest rating comes on perceptions of his handling of the general cost of living, with 23 percent approving vs. 76 percent disapproving.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wpds-c-heFNVF wpds-c-heFNVF-iPJLV-css overrideStyles font-copy\" dir=\"null\" data-apitype=\"text\" data-contentid=\"7W6TOABTZNFUVPTJDQ2VTXYPVU\" data-el=\"text\">Trump\u2019s overall approval now stands at 37 percent, largely the same as the 39 percent figure in February. But his disapproval has reached 62 percent, the highest of his two terms in office. Among Republicans, Trump\u2019s approval has held steady at 85 percent, but his ratings among Republican-leaning independents have reached a new low of 56 percent. His approval rating stands at 25 percent among independents overall. <em>[<a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/politics\/2026\/05\/03\/trump-approval-ratings-poll\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>WaPo<\/strong><\/a>]<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>The implicit question for <em><strong>GOP<\/strong><\/em> Senate candidates remains the same as last time: whether they support a President whose very governmental position is ripping holes in their Party, or do they defy him and infuriate, possibly, the President&#8217;s <strong>MAGA<\/strong> base? Not a cud I&#8217;d care to swallow, but if I had to I&#8217;d go with the rejection of the President, and I&#8217;d insert casual mentions of the <strong>Epstein Files<\/strong> into my speeches, because much of <strong>MAGA<\/strong> is reportedly still furious about the <strong>Epstein Files<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Chomp Chomp Chomp<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>And now for the <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2026\/04\/24\/the-2026-senate-campaign-updates-11\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">tough sinew<\/a> of this chuck of throwaway &#8230; flesh:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>In <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2026\/04\/15\/the-2026-senate-campaign-updates-10\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Maine<\/a>, Governor Mills (D) has abandoned all hope <em>before<\/em> the primary:<br \/>\n<blockquote><p>Maine Gov. Janet Mills announced Thursday she is dropping out of her race to take on Republican Sen. Susan Collins in the crucial state for Democrats\u2019 hopes of winning Senate control, saying she had run out of money to compete.<\/p>\n<p>Mills, a two-term governor and former prosecutor, had failed to excite Democrats in the state after launching her campaign last fall on a message of fighting President Donald Trump. Mills, 78, was a top recruit of Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer but lost ground quickly to Graham Platner, a 41-year-old oyster farmer who had never held elected office before but who has been drawing large crowds around the state with his blunt talk of confronting the establishment.<em> [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/politics\/2026\/04\/30\/mills-maine-senate-collins-platner\/?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=newsletter\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>WaPo<\/strong><\/a>]<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>And, contra my <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2026\/04\/15\/the-2026-senate-campaign-updates-10\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">last post on Maine<\/a>, the primary date of 9 June will be another blank entry in my brain, at least with regards to Maine, unless one of the two other candidates in the Democratic primary pull off a shocker. Senator Collins (R) does not have a challenger.<\/p>\n<p>Dissatisfaction with Congress may cost Senator Collins her job, as surprising as that may seem.<\/p>\n<p>Will Mills support Platner?<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>In Mills\u2019s statement, she didn\u2019t mention Platner but said she would spend the rest of her gubernatorial term \u201cworking hard for you, standing up for what is right, defending the Constitution and doing what I can to preserve our democracy.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/li>\n<li>Is appointed incumbent Senator Moody (R) of <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2026\/04\/15\/the-2026-senate-campaign-updates-10\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Florida<\/a> facing a hidden challenge? One of the components of the voters for Republicans in Florida are Latino-Americans who find the Democratic position on undocumented workers off-putting. As I understand it, the reasoning goes that those who did the hard work that is required of naturalized Americans do not believe undocumented workers should have to do less, and so they won&#8217;t vote Democratic. But now, as <em><strong>MS NOW<\/strong><\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ms.now\/opinion\/cubans-trump-cato-republicans-midterms-desantis-gerrymandering-florida\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">reports<\/a>, there may be the winds of change in the air &#8230;<br \/>\n<blockquote><p>Amid the Trump administration\u2019s\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/us-news\/2026\/mar\/13\/trumps-racist-hate-speech-human-rights-violations-warn-un-watchdog\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">racist anti-immigrant crackdown<\/a>, a reported surge in the arrests of\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ms.now\/the-weekend-primetime\/watch\/cuba-crisis-historian-says-cuban-people-suffering-tremendously-2487340611558\">Cubans<\/a>\u00a0isn\u2019t merely a moral crisis \u2014 for Republicans, it could pose an electoral crisis as well.<\/p>\n<p>A\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cato.org\/blog\/uscis-cut-green-card-approvals-half-help-ice-arrest-legal-immigrants\">new study<\/a>\u00a0from the conservative-leaning Cato Institute found that due in part to a dramatic drop in the number of green card approvals, the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ms.now\/opinion\/eeoc-trump-white-men-discrimination-andrea-lucas-dei\">Trump administration<\/a>\u00a0has overseen a massive spike in arrests. The report specifically found that \u201cending Cuban Adjustment Act green card approvals has certainly helped ICE to increase arrests of Cubans by 463 percent.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>This report aligns with President Donald Trump\u2019s campaign vow to pursue the largest mass deportation effort in U.S. history and likely is welcome news to the conservatives who have\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/2026\/04\/13\/republicans-trump-immigration-mass-deportations\">complained that the administration hasn\u2019t deported enough people<\/a>. At the same time, the report arguably adds to ongoing questions about how the White House\u2019s crackdown \u2014\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ms.now\/opinion\/trump-immigration-polls-approval-decline\">which appears to be one of the reasons for Trump\u2019s cratering poll numbers<\/a>\u00a0\u2014 will affect Republicans\u2019 electoral hopes in the months, or even years, ahead.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>If enough Latinos decide they made a mistake in 2024, not only could House seats be flipped, but so could the Senate seat. I think this is a long-shot, especially as this reasoning is not reflected in the Florida polls I&#8217;ve reviewed, but President Trump has shown a knack for taking the wrong action at the wrong moment, a common problem for common liars and common criminals. And, from the same article, the words of true insiders can be more interesting than external critics &#8230;<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Rep. Maria Salazar, a Florida Republican whose parents were Cuban exiles,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ms.now\/opinion\/maga-latinos-backlash-midterms\">has been warning<\/a>\u00a0about Latinos turning away from the GOP in November\u2019s midterms. But Salazar, who has introduced legislation that sets forth a pathway to citizenship for some undocumented immigrants, appears to have\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2026\/04\/12\/maga-immigration-dignity-act-00868493\">become a pariah among hard-liners in the MAGA movement<\/a>.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><em><strong>Stetson University<\/strong><\/em> is new to me, and <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Stetson_University\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">I see it has<\/a> what I will interpret as a conservative history and possible bias. Therefore, when its <a href=\"https:\/\/www2.stetson.edu\/today\/2026\/04\/stetson-poll-republicans-lead-in-florida-2026-races-but-many-voters-still-undecided\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">polling<\/a> shows Senator Moody leading Alexander Vindman (D) 49% &#8211; 42%, and Florida House of Representatives member Angela Nixon 51%-38%, take it for what you will. The margins might be smaller.<\/li>\n<li>In <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2026\/04\/24\/the-2026-senate-campaign-updates-11\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Texas<\/a>, <em><strong>Texas Public Opinion Research<\/strong><\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.texastribune.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/TPOR-April-2026-TXSEN-poll-1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">suggests<\/a> James Talarico (D), the Democratic nominee, has small leads over Senator Cornyn (R) and AG Paxton (R), who are locked in a <del>deathmatch<\/del> primary runoff. <em><strong>University of Texas<\/strong><\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/texaspolitics.utexas.edu\/files\/202604_POLL_TOPLINES-1d319c0b.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">polling<\/a> gives somewhat larger gaps of 7 and 8 points, respectively, to Talarico vs Cornyn and Talarico vs Paxton.Questions that come to mind:\n<ul>\n<li>If Paxton loses the runoff, will he distract Texas voters with howls of <em>fake elections<\/em>?<\/li>\n<li>If Cornyn loses the runoff, will he withdraw from politics in disgust?<\/li>\n<li>Will Trump endorse either prior to the runoff, or will his need to be right delay him until too late?<\/li>\n<li>If he does endorse, is that a disaster for the endorsee in the primary? If not there, in the general?<\/li>\n<li>Finally, would Trump consider endorsing Talarico in a ballsy reverse-psychology move?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div id=\"attachment_44428\" style=\"width: 239px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/oti-john-fleming.gif?ssl=1\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-44428\" class=\"wp-image-44428\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/oti-john-fleming.gif?resize=229%2C229&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" width=\"229\" height=\"229\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-44428\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><em><strong>On The Issues<\/strong><\/em>: <a href=\"https:\/\/ontheissues.org\/Senate\/John_Fleming.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em>Louisiana State Treasurer John Fleming (R).<\/em><\/a><\/p><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2026\/02\/16\/the-2026-senate-campaign-the-burned\/#Louisiana\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Louisiana<\/a> is harboring a surprise. Venerable <em><strong>Emerson College<\/strong><\/em> is <a href=\"https:\/\/emersoncollegepolling.com\/louisiana-2026-poll-fleming-letlow-cassidy-in-close-three-way-race-for-senate\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">giving<\/a> neither incumbent Senator Cassidy (R) nor Trump-endorsed Rep Julia Letlow (R) a lead in the Republican primary, but instead giving State Treasurer <a href=\"https:\/\/ballotpedia.org\/John_Fleming_(Louisiana)\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">John Fleming<\/a> (R) the lead. Granted, a 1 point lead over Letlow is hardly definitive, but it&#8217;s a provocative result when Letlow has the burden of a Trump endorsement. This is not to say the Republican Party of Louisiana has suddenly shifted towards moderation, as can be seen in the position summation of Mr. Fleming on the right, but that President Trump may be a non-factor &#8211; or, as I&#8217;ve said repeatedly and tiresomely, a <em>burden<\/em>.<\/li>\n<li>In <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2026\/03\/07\/the-2026-senate-campaign-updates-5\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Georgia<\/a> the <em><strong>University of Georgia&#8217;s<\/strong><\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.documentcloud.org\/documents\/28088072-ajc-poll-gop-april-2026-gov-sen\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">polling<\/a> shows Rep Collins (R) has a 22%-13% lead over Rep Carter (R), while retired football coach Derek Dooley has an 11% share. The poll shows Undecideds with a huge lead over all three of them at 53.6%. Because the primary is coming right up on May 19th, we may see a hugely dissatisfied group of primary voters sit this one out, or vote for a write-in candidate if that&#8217;s permitted. I should guess incumbent Senator Ossoff (D) is smiling.\n<p>Ironically, the Republicans oppose <em>ranked-choice voting<\/em>, yet that might have been the biggest danger to the Senator, as a moderate Republican might actually be the choice of unhappy Georgia voters.<\/li>\n<li>In <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2026\/04\/15\/the-2026-senate-campaign-updates-10\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ohio<\/a>, Senator Husted (R) has <a href=\"https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/dbernstein.bsky.social\/post\/3mknkicxfnc27\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">his first TV ad<\/a>:, and David Bernstein has an important observation:<br \/>\n<blockquote><p>OH Sen Jon Husted unveils his first TV ad of the campaign (vs Sherrod Brown) &#8211; it does not include the word \u201cRepublican,\u201d or any mention of Trump, or any reference to GOP issues.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>At least in Ohio, Trump is not a popular word. But is Husted familiar enough to get him elected? Or is his challenger, the highly experienced Sherrod Brown (D), the better bet?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Anchor In Their Underwear I have mentioned this before, but President Trump continues to slide towards the bubbling lava pit of incompetency and American contempt. James Downie of MS NOW provides a helpful summation: There\u2019s no other way to put it: The\u00a0most recent Associated Press-NORC poll\u00a0was a disaster for \u2026 <a class=\"continue-reading-link\" href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2026\/04\/01\/the-2026-senate-campaign-updates-12\/\"> Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr; <\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44426","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44426","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44426"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44426\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":44446,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44426\/revisions\/44446"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44426"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44426"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44426"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}