Any Thoughts On The House?<\/h3>\n
Not really. Once, maybe twice I’ve mentioned I expect a Democratic pickup of roughly forty seats, despite brave Republican speculations on strengthening<\/em> their current minuscule majority.<\/p>\n But now Fenris Hero on Daily Kos<\/strong><\/em> suggests<\/a> that Mr Trump’s reference to a “little secret” that reassures Mr Trump may actually turn into an advantage for the Democrats standing for office:<\/p>\n NBC did some research on issues and how voters react to them.<\/a>\u00a0 One of the biggest losers is 2020 election denialism.\u00a0 Democrats have been hammering away at this issue, and the GOP has loudly refused to exist within the bounds of reality.\u00a0 While this was viewed as a side show to most voters, Trumps own words could draw this front and center.\u00a0 Most voters rightly don\u2019t want anything like the 2020 election chaos occurring again.\u00a0 Trump has just not so subtly promised that he intends to rekindle that chaos with the help of a GOP House.\u00a0 Every GOP House candidate is now potentially a vote to try and ignore the results of the 2024 presidential election.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n It’s an interesting speculation, particularly if Mr Trump decides to try to use it to boost his campaign. A forty seat wave, if this is true, might be an underestimate.<\/p>\n And it may boost some Democratic candidates for Senate as well.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, The New York Times\/Siena College<\/strong><\/em> (top of the heap 3.0) finds Senator Cruz (R-TX) with a four point lead over Rep Allred, 50%-46%<\/a>. Besides the obvious clash with the Emerson College<\/em><\/strong> (2.9) finding of a single point lead in the previous Texas update<\/a>, NYT\/Siena<\/strong><\/em> has seemed to be on the conservative side of the high quality pollster spectrum throughout the 2024 campaign, much like Emerson College<\/strong><\/em>. Or is it just me and my delusions? We’ll find out in the 1+ weeks, depending on how fast votes are counted.<\/li>\n On The Issues<\/strong>: Senator Deb Fischer (R-NB)<\/a>. <\/em><\/p><\/div>\n If you’re a registered voter<\/em> in Nebraska<\/a>, then The New York Times\/Siena College<\/strong><\/em> (3.0) gives Dan Osborn (I-NB, Democratic Party-endorsed) a one point lead, 47%-46%<\/a>, over Senator Fischer (R-NB). But for likely voters<\/em>, the lead flips to Senator Fischer, 48%-46%. So it appears tight. The question for the hesitant Nebraska voter is whether you believe a hard right extremist like Senator Fischer (see right) will be abashed by a close race, or whether Nebraska simply needs to replace her as not representing Nebraska values.<\/li>\n Missouri Senator Josh Hawley is treating his home state of Missouri like a flyover state, according to a new report that shows just how rarely the\u00a0hawkish<\/a>\u00a0Republican lawmaker returns there.<\/p>\n Records of Hawley\u2019s taxpayer-funded travels reviewed by\u00a0St. Louis Magazine<\/em><\/a>\u00a0revealed that the Missouri Republican has traveled between Washington, D.C., and the Show-Me State only 33 times between March 2019 and January 2024\u2014an average of six times per year.<\/p>\n Many of Hawley\u2019s trips were short: Eight of them involved Hawley hightailing out of Missouri after less than 48 hours. More than half the time, Hawley was traveling home around the holidays, which tended to be longer stays. Hawley\u2019s longest trip home was between April 1, 2020, and May 1, 2020, around the start of the Covid-19 pandemic.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n Someone remind me: When did The New Republic<\/strong><\/em> gain the power of damning? This seems like weak tea to me, but perhaps Missourians will disagree.<\/li>\n This may be the object lesson in why supporting a dementia patient in hopes of manipulating him after he wins is an unwise strategy. Of course, President Putin and other interfering foreign citizens are relatively safe from blowback. But how about Republican elected officials? How many will retain their positions and the respect of their constituents in the near future? Are we beginning to see the final exhaustion of the ideological weaponry that’s been keeping Republicans afloat all these years?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n Trafalgar Group<\/strong><\/em> (0.7), InsiderAdvantage<\/strong><\/em> (2.0), Patriot Polling<\/strong><\/em> (1.1), and North Star Opinion Research<\/strong><\/em> (1.1).<\/p>\n We’re down to the last week, and it’s hard to say how many more worthwhile polls are going to show up. Add in the fact that the arthritis in my shoulder is bad enough to require surgery, and I can’t guarantee anything more in this thread, although I’ll try if material comes available.<\/p>\n Otherwise, stay —<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" The Cliff’s In Sight! The Cliff’s In Sight! Don’t Let Them Catch Us! Faster! (New Minnesota Viking Slogan?) Any Thoughts On The House? Not really. Once, maybe twice I’ve mentioned I expect a Democratic pickup of roughly forty seats, despite brave Republican speculations on strengthening their current minuscule majority. But \u2026 Continue reading Viva Something!<\/h3>\n
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\nAt The Bottom Of The Bin<\/h3>\n
The Conclusion And Its Meal<\/h3>\n