{"id":41257,"date":"2024-10-23T23:24:10","date_gmt":"2024-10-24T04:24:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/?p=41257"},"modified":"2024-10-23T23:24:10","modified_gmt":"2024-10-24T04:24:10","slug":"the-2024-senate-campaign-updates-32","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2024\/10\/23\/the-2024-senate-campaign-updates-32\/","title":{"rendered":"The 2024 Senate Campaign: Updates"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>It&#8217;s all coming in a rush. Oh, that&#8217;s right, I shouldn&#8217;t mix campaign updates with Stephen King movies. <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2024\/10\/20\/the-2024-senate-campaign-updates-31\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Please, don&#8217;t open the elevator.<\/a><\/p>\n<h3>Is The Truth Like A Human In Jurassic Park, Running For It&#8211;<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><em><strong>University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab<\/strong><\/em> (2.8) says former Rep Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL) is only three points behind Senator Scott (R-FL), <a href=\"https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/polls\/20241021_FL_UNF.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">49%-46%<\/a>, in <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2024\/10\/17\/the-2024-senate-campaign-updates-30\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Florida<\/a>. <em><strong>Emerson College<\/strong><\/em> (2.9) gives Senator Scott a larger lead of six points, <a href=\"https:\/\/emersoncollegepolling.com\/october-2024-florida-poll-trump-52-harris-44\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">53%-47%<\/a>. I wonder how large a part the hurricanes will play in swaying folks&#8217; opinions. I suppose we&#8217;ll not be able to measure that with any sort of confidence.<\/li>\n<li>In <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2024\/10\/20\/the-2024-senate-campaign-updates-31\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Pennsylvania<\/a>,\u00a0<em><strong>Monmouth University<\/strong><\/em> (2.9) is giving Senator Casey (D-PA) a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.monmouth.edu\/polling-institute\/reports\/monmouthpoll_pa_092624\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">44%-40%<\/a> lead over challenger David McCormick (R-PA?), perhaps a bit on the low end of the range that we&#8217;ve seen. Since we&#8217;re here, unknown pollster <em><strong>Rodriguez Gudelunas Strategies<\/strong><\/em>, a new organization to me, with known Democratic-aligned sponsor <em><strong>Focus on Rural America<\/strong><\/em>, is giving Senator Casey a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.focusonruralamerica.com\/2024\/10\/02\/focus-on-rural-america-new-polling-shows-harris-leading-in-michigan-and-wisconsin-tied-with-trump-in-pennsylvania\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">47%-45%<\/a> lead, which I&#8217;m sure is within their unsupplied margin of error. And that may be quite large as they report their sample size to be an unsettling low of 400 voters.<br \/>\n<hr width=\"0\" \/>\n<p>So this difference in measurements does spark the question: which is closer to the truth? There&#8217;s no way to know, so the way to lean is towards <em><strong>Monmouth University<\/strong><\/em>, as they have the superior reputation.<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>Quinnipiac University<\/strong><\/em> (2.8) sees <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2024\/10\/20\/the-2024-senate-campaign-updates-31\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Michigan&#8217;s<\/a> Rep Slotkin (D-MI) leading by eight over former Rep Rogers (R-MI), <a href=\"https:\/\/poll.qu.edu\/poll-release?releaseid=3915\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">52%-44%<\/a>, a position Rep Slotkin has occupied, mostly, since the primaries, but &#8230; not with <em><strong>Quinnipiac University<\/strong><\/em>! The last time this pollster surveyed Michigan on the Senate race, which was only a couple of weeks prior, they found the race <strong>tied<\/strong>; now it&#8217;s Slotkin by eight? The pollster acknowledges the difference but doesn&#8217;t try to explain it, at least not in the provided report. Poor surveying technique? Since I&#8217;m here, unknown pollster <em><strong>Rodriguez Gudelunas Strategies<\/strong><\/em>, a new organization to me, with known Democratic-aligned sponsor <em><strong>Focus on Rural America<\/strong><\/em>, is giving Rep Slotkin a smaller lead of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.focusonruralamerica.com\/2024\/10\/02\/focus-on-rural-america-new-polling-shows-harris-leading-in-michigan-and-wisconsin-tied-with-trump-in-pennsylvania\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">50%-45%<\/a>. Their sample size is a small 400 voters. It may be close in Michigan, but Rep Slotkin appears to be on course for a promotion.<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>Quinnipiac University<\/strong><\/em> (2.8) sees <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2024\/10\/20\/the-2024-senate-campaign-updates-31\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Wisconsin&#8217;s<\/a> Senator Baldwin (D-WI) leading by one over challenger Eric Hovde (R-WI), <a href=\"https:\/\/poll.qu.edu\/poll-release?releaseid=3915\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">49%-48%<\/a>, or a dead heat. Unknown pollster <em><strong>Rodriguez Gudelunas Strategies<\/strong><\/em>, with known Democratic-aligned sponsor <em><strong>Focus on Rural America<\/strong><\/em>, is giving Rep Slotkin a substantial lead of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.focusonruralamerica.com\/2024\/10\/02\/focus-on-rural-america-new-polling-shows-harris-leading-in-michigan-and-wisconsin-tied-with-trump-in-pennsylvania\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">52%-44%<\/a>. Their sample size is a small 400 voters, or a bit more than a third of the sample size reported by <em><strong>Quinnipiac University<\/strong><\/em>. Here we have a highly rated pollster that is issuing erratic measurements (see the Michigan entry, above), and an unknown pollster with a big lead for Senator Baldwin based on less data. It&#8217;s hard to say which to believe.<\/li>\n<li>In <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2024\/10\/20\/the-2024-senate-campaign-updates-31\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Texas<\/a>, <em><strong>Emerson College<\/strong><\/em> (2.9) is giving Senator Cruz (R-TX) a two point lead, <a href=\"https:\/\/emersoncollegepolling.com\/october-2024-texas-poll-trump-53-harris-46\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">48%-47%<\/a> with a bit of rounding, over Rep Allred (D-TX). As the poll&#8217;s credibility interval is \u00b13.4 points, this race might be sizzling. Except the last update featured <em><strong>YouGov<\/strong><\/em> (2.9) giving Senator Cruz a <a href=\"https:\/\/texaspolitics.utexas.edu\/blog\/voting-about-start-texas-trump-and-cruz-maintain-single-digit-leads-new-university-texastexas\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">seven point lead<\/a>, <em>and<\/em> Cruz over 50%. As we head into the last two weeks, the pollsters are getting quite erratic, even among the good pollsters.<\/li>\n<li>In <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2024\/10\/17\/the-2024-senate-campaign-updates-30\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Maryland<\/a>, <em><strong>Emerson College<\/strong><\/em> (2.9) appears to be putting the stake into former Governor Hogan&#8217;s (R-MD) campaign for the open Senate seat, according Democrat Angela Alsobrooks (D-MN) a <a href=\"https:\/\/emersoncollegepolling.com\/october-2024-maryland-poll-alsobrooks-d-54-hogan-r-40\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">57%-43%<\/a> lead.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>Unworthy Of Discussion<\/h3>\n<p>Pollsters the results of which were not cited: <strong><em>ActiVote<\/em><\/strong>, <em><strong>Redfield &amp; Wilton Strategies<\/strong><\/em> (1.8), <em><strong>Trafalgar Group<\/strong><\/em> (0.7 &#8211; that&#8217;s not a typo!), <em><strong>InsiderAdvantage<\/strong><\/em> (2.0 &#8211; seems to lean conservative, but it&#8217;s hard to say how much), and <em><strong>Change Research<\/strong><\/em> (1.4).<\/p>\n<h3>Anything Else?<\/h3>\n<p>Not really. The battleground states remain the popular polling targets; Nebraska&#8217;s not being polled unless it&#8217;s sponsored by the candidates. Will Osborn pull off the upset? We&#8217;ll just have to wait.<\/p>\n<p>I often hate waiting.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It&#8217;s all coming in a rush. Oh, that&#8217;s right, I shouldn&#8217;t mix campaign updates with Stephen King movies. Please, don&#8217;t open the elevator. Is The Truth Like A Human In Jurassic Park, Running For It&#8211; University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab (2.8) says former Rep Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL) is \u2026 <a class=\"continue-reading-link\" href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2024\/10\/23\/the-2024-senate-campaign-updates-32\/\"> Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr; <\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-41257","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41257","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41257"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41257\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":41276,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41257\/revisions\/41276"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41257"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41257"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41257"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}