{"id":40911,"date":"2024-09-01T20:19:28","date_gmt":"2024-09-02T01:19:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/?p=40911"},"modified":"2024-09-08T08:52:30","modified_gmt":"2024-09-08T13:52:30","slug":"the-2024-senate-campaign-updates-21","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2024\/09\/01\/the-2024-senate-campaign-updates-21\/","title":{"rendered":"The 2024 Senate Campaign: Updates"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2024\/08\/30\/the-2024-senate-campaign-updates-20\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">And what does the squall of polls mean?<\/a> Maybe we can hope for one in Mississippi? Or am I getting my hopes up?<\/p>\n<h3>You Can <del>Here<\/del> Hear Their Engines Overloading<\/h3>\n<p>This seems to be the week for frantic tilting by suspected conservative pollsters, such as <em><strong>Redfield &amp; Wilton Strategies<\/strong><\/em> and <em><strong>InsiderAdvantage<\/strong><\/em>. We saw this sort of thing in 2022, as I&#8217;ve mentioned before, but it&#8217;s not clear to me that it does anything more than ruin the reputations of the pollsters. Maybe it forestalls failures in House and downballot races by misleading voters about just how badly the campaigns are going?<\/p>\n<h3>And Here We Are, At Niagara Falls<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Ballot Splitting, Anyone?<\/strong> According to <em><strong>SurveyUSA<\/strong><\/em> (2.8\/3 at <a href=\"https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/pollster-ratings\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em><strong>FiveThirtyEight<\/strong><\/em><\/a>), <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2024\/08\/30\/the-2024-senate-campaign-updates-20\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Nebraska<\/a> may favor Mr Trump, 54%-37%, over Mz Harris, but when it comes to the regularly scheduled Senate seat race, it&#8217;s no romp: Senator Fischer (R-NE) leads by <strong>only one<\/strong> over challenger Dan Osborn (I-NE, Democrat-endorsed), <a href=\"https:\/\/split-ticket.org\/2024\/08\/31\/we-polled-nebraska-and-its-second-district-heres-what-we-found\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">39%-38%<\/a>, certainly within the \u00b13.5% margin of error. Poll sponsor <em><strong>Split Ticket&#8217;s<\/strong><\/em> analysis includes this:<br \/>\n<blockquote><p>This is almost entirely due to Osborn running as an Independent. His overperformance doesn\u2019t seem like it is due to his own favorability rating (which stands at 34% favorable and 24% unfavorable), as 42% of voters simply haven\u2019t heard anything about him. It also doesn\u2019t seem like it is wholly attributable to Deb Fischer\u2019s ratings \u2014 at 42% favorable and 41% unfavorable, her rating is still net positive, and it\u2019s actually better than Pete Ricketts\u2019 44% favorable and 45% unfavorable image. But Ricketts leads by 17, while Fischer leads by just 1, with the only real difference between their races being their opponents\u2019 party identification.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>So it appears that in Nebraska the <em>Democrats are to be loathed<\/em> brain-washing has been at least partially successful. <em><strong>Split Ticket&#8217;s<\/strong><\/em> conclusion?<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>We\u2019d still think Fischer is extremely likely to win, given the time left in this race, the number of undecideds, and the mystery box that Osborn is to many voters at the moment. In fact, we think she\u2019ll gain significantly as the election nears. But that hasn\u2019t happened yet, and at the moment, our poll finds something very similar to what Osborn\u2019s released internals are yielding: a very unexpectedly competitive race. We\u2019ll see if that holds.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Seems reasonable enough. Two months to go.<\/li>\n<li>\n<div id=\"attachment_40861\" style=\"width: 177px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Pete-Ricketts-OTI.jpg?ssl=1\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-40861\" class=\"wp-image-40861\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Pete-Ricketts-OTI.jpg?resize=167%2C167&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" width=\"167\" height=\"167\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Pete-Ricketts-OTI.jpg?w=351&amp;ssl=1 351w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Pete-Ricketts-OTI.jpg?resize=300%2C300&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Pete-Ricketts-OTI.jpg?resize=150%2C150&amp;ssl=1 150w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 167px) 100vw, 167px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-40861\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><em><strong>On The Issues<\/strong>: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ontheissues.org\/Peter_Ricketts.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Senator Pete Ricketts (R-NE).<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n<p>The same pairing of <em><strong>SurveyUSA<\/strong><\/em> and <em><strong>Split Ticket<\/strong><\/em> doesn&#8217;t find comparable drama in the other Nebraska Senate race to that of Senator Fischer&#8217;s race, as Senator Ricketts (R-NE) leads challenger Preston Love, Jr. (D-NE) <a href=\"https:\/\/split-ticket.org\/2024\/08\/31\/we-polled-nebraska-and-its-second-district-heres-what-we-found\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">50%-33%<\/a>. That&#8217;s a pity, given Rickett&#8217;s adamantly hard-line conservatism is inappropriate in an institution that should be built on compromise and humility.<\/li>\n<li>Commenting on the <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2024\/08\/30\/the-2024-senate-campaign-updates-20\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Arizona<\/a> Senate race no longer seems worth the time, even if Republican candidate and election-denier Kari Lake&#8217;s authoritative commentary on a previously reported poll is this:<br \/>\n<blockquote><p>Lake on Thursday called the [Fox News] poll [showing Lake to be down by 15 points] \u201cabsolute garbage.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cNobody wins by 15 points,\u201d she told KTAR\u2019s Mike Broomhead.\u00a0<em>[<a href=\"https:\/\/www.msn.com\/en-us\/news\/politics\/kari-lake-is-in-double-digit-denial-about-her-disaster-of-an-arizona-senate-race\/ar-AA1pJ5Nw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>azcentral<\/strong><\/a>]<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>So I shan&#8217;t, unless Gallego falls off a cliff. But since I&#8217;m here, <em><strong>Redfield &amp; Wilton Strategies<\/strong><\/em> (1.8) is giving Gallego a mere five point lead, <a href=\"https:\/\/redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com\/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-25-28-august-2024\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">42%-37%<\/a>, which I&#8217;m choosing to consider a piece of evidence that <strong>Redfield &amp; Wilton Strategies<\/strong> leans heavily conservative. Another suspect, <em><strong>InsiderAdvantage<\/strong><\/em> (2.0), is also giving Gallego a five point lead at 49%-45% (a bit of rounding, no doubt), proving, perhaps, to be another friend of Mz Lake. With friends like these, the humiliation of losing by twenty points, which is not out of the question, just becomes more intense.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2024\/08\/30\/the-2024-senate-campaign-updates-20\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Florida<\/a> has acquired its own abortion Amendment to the State Constitution, known as Amendment 4, to be approved by the electorate. I understand it to be a compromise, <a href=\"https:\/\/ballotpedia.org\/Florida_Amendment_4,_Right_to_Abortion_Initiative_(2024)\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">as its language<\/a> (from <em><strong>Ballotpedia<\/strong><\/em>) is, in part:<br \/>\n<blockquote><p>\u2026 no law shall prohibit, penalize, delay, or restrict abortion before viability or when necessary to protect the patient\u2019s health, as determined by the patient\u2019s healthcare provider.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>&#8230; <em>before viability<\/em> &#8230; makes it a compromise, of course. Indeed, some might call it a <em>faux<\/em>-compromise, as many obstetrician-gynecologists would find themselves in the uncomfortable situation of having to interpret an amendment of dubious composition, often under a time pressure. But it does function as a defense of some abortion rights, which explains the pro-life movement&#8217;s hostility towards it.<\/p>\n<p>Mr. Trump, as a Florida resident, can vote on the Amendment if he so wishes, and when he did not express complete and total opposition to it in response to an interview question, Erick Erickson and other right-wing extremists <a href=\"https:\/\/ewerickson.substack.com\/p\/souter-2024\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">had a panic attack<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Now, [pro-lifers] are losing with Donald Trump, who yesterday, when everyone on the right had the opportunity to rally behind him and enjoy watching Kamala Harris beclown herself, had to interrupt the news cycle to announce he did not like a six-week fetal heartbeat ban in Florida \u2014 existing law that had broad appeal among conservatives.<\/p>\n<p>Pro-lifers interpreted that as Trump endorsing the public abortion referendum on the ballot in Florida. His campaign tried to spin it, but the damage was done.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/McCormackJohn\/status\/1829291241739337966\" rel=\"\">NBC: \u201cSo you\u2019ll vote in favor of the amendment?\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/McCormackJohn\/status\/1829291241739337966\" rel=\"\">Trump: \u201cI am gonna be voting that we need more than six weeks.\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n<p>There is the six-week existing law, or there is the pro-abortion amendment. The amendment, to be voted on by voters on election day, would legalize all abortions until the moment the last toe of the child has left the birth canal.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Of course, Erickson misstates the Amendment, but let&#8217;s ignore that. If the pro-life movement walks away from Mr. Trump, he is finished, in Erickson&#8217;s opinion. I agree. Mr Trump then issued a retraction, again <a href=\"https:\/\/ewerickson.substack.com\/p\/glad-he-did-that\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">according<\/a> to Erick Erickson:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Yesterday, on my show and here, I said Donald Trump needed to come out and say he opposed Florida\u2019s Amendment 4. More specifically, on my show, I said he needed to do it before pro-life Christians got in church on Sunday and started talking to each other.<\/p>\n<p>I\u2019m under no illusion that I had anything to do with Mr. Trump\u2019s clarification, but I am glad he did it before the sun set on Friday.<\/p>\n<p>Not only should that help kill Amendment 4 in Florida, but it should help Mr. Trump with pro-life voters.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Mr Trump may have saved the allegiance of the core of his base, the pro-lifers. But that does not doom Florida&#8217;s Amendment 4; Erickson remains blinded by his flawed stance against abortion, and his belief that he somehow has the right to inflict his flawed reasoning on everyone else, even those whose lives are endangered by it. Mr. Trump understands, in a way Erickson does not, that women resent Erickson&#8217;s belief system that results in their ephemerality.<\/p>\n<p>That means voters opposed to the loss of abortion rights will still show up at the polls, probably vote against Mr Trump, and certainly for this flawed Amendment &#8211; and, for the purposes of this post &#8211; against Senator Scott (R-FL) and for former Rep Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL). If the latter wins, she can send a <strong>Thank you!<\/strong> note to the Amendment 4 organizers, and then to Mr Trump.<\/p>\n<p>In other news, <em><strong>Redfield &amp; Wilton Strategies<\/strong><\/em> (1.8) gives Senator Scott a lead of only three points, <a href=\"https:\/\/redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com\/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-25-28-august-2024\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">43%-40%<\/a>. over former Rep Mucarsel-Powell. If <em><strong>Redfield &amp; Wilton Strategies\u00a0<\/strong><\/em>does lean conservative, Mucarsel-Powell may actually be ahead. But that&#8217;s only speculation.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2024\/08\/30\/the-2024-senate-campaign-updates-20\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">West Virginia&#8217;s<\/a> Senate race has a poll, but <em><strong>FiveThirtyEight<\/strong><\/em> does not recognize the pollster, <em><strong>Research America<\/strong><\/em>, and the sponsor is <em><strong>West Virginia MetroNews<\/strong><\/em>, which doesn&#8217;t scream a bias. Justice is given a huge lead of <a href=\"https:\/\/wvmetronews.com\/2024\/08\/30\/west-virginia-poll-solid-leads-for-morrisey-and-justice-in-upcoming-election\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">62%-28%<\/a>, but since the credibility of the pollster is impossible to assess, I can&#8217;t take this seriously, yet. Mr Justice losing this race is nearly inconceivable, but I&#8217;ve been more impressed by the paucity of polls of West Virginia voters.<\/li>\n<li>In <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2024\/08\/30\/the-2024-senate-campaign-updates-20\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Michigan<\/a>, <em><strong>Redfield &amp; Wilton Strategies<\/strong><\/em> (1.8) gives Rep Slotkin (D-MI) a lead of <a href=\"https:\/\/redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com\/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-25-28-august-2024\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">42%-35%<\/a> over former Rep Mike Rogers (R-MI) for the open Michigan Senate seat, which may be conservatively slanted. <em><strong>EPIC-MRA<\/strong><\/em> (2.0) has Slotkin ahead by a smaller margin, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.woodtv.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/51\/2024\/08\/EPIC-MRA-poll-results-083024.pdf?ipid=promo-link-block1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">46%-42%<\/a>. <em><strong>WoodTV.com<\/strong><\/em>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.woodtv.com\/news\/elections\/presidential-race-in-michigan-remains-tight-new-poll-shows\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">reporting<\/a> on the <em><strong>EPIC-MRA<\/strong><\/em> poll, notes and compares to a recent <em><strong>Emerson College<\/strong><\/em> poll, which is nice, although they don&#8217;t note <em><strong>Emerson College&#8217;s<\/strong><\/em> rating of 2.9, easily exceeding these two polls. On the other hand, I&#8217;m a little suspicious of <em><strong>Emerson College<\/strong><\/em> myself, but they may end up making a monkey out of me.<\/li>\n<li>My suspicions of\u00a0<em><strong>Redfield &amp; Wilton Strategies<\/strong><\/em> (1.8) are crystallized in their report on <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2024\/08\/16\/the-2024-senate-campaign-updates-17\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Minnesota<\/a> Senator Klobuchar (D-MN) vs challenger Royce White (R-MN) in which they accord the Senator a mere seven point lead at <a href=\"https:\/\/redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com\/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-25-28-august-2024\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">41%-34%<\/a>. If that lead is not tweny-plus points, it&#8217;s not, in my opinion, accurate. And why in the <em>world<\/em> would they think Minnesota is a swing state? They also think Senator Rosen&#8217;s (D-NV) lead over challenger Sam Brown (R-NV) is only four, 43%-39%, in <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2024\/08\/30\/the-2024-senate-campaign-updates-20\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Nevada<\/a>. Recent polling has suggested a ten-plus point lead.<\/li>\n<li>In <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2024\/08\/30\/the-2024-senate-campaign-updates-20\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Texas<\/a> unknown pollster <em><strong>Quantus Polls and News<\/strong><\/em> gives Senator Cruz (R-TX) an almost plausible lead of <a href=\"https:\/\/quantus.substack.com\/p\/trump-and-cruz-lead-comfortably-in?r=42r82k\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">50%-43%<\/a> over Rep Allred (D-TX). But why should I take this seriously? Ah, well, new pollsters are required to start out under the proper cloud of skepticism. Let&#8217;s hope none of those Texas hailstorms are embedded in that skepticism.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Fin.<\/p>\n<p>[Sep 1 2024]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>And what does the squall of polls mean? Maybe we can hope for one in Mississippi? Or am I getting my hopes up? You Can Here Hear Their Engines Overloading This seems to be the week for frantic tilting by suspected conservative pollsters, such as Redfield &amp; Wilton Strategies and \u2026 <a class=\"continue-reading-link\" href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2024\/09\/01\/the-2024-senate-campaign-updates-21\/\"> Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr; <\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-40911","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40911","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=40911"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40911\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":40964,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40911\/revisions\/40964"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40911"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=40911"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=40911"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}