{"id":40666,"date":"2024-07-01T09:05:39","date_gmt":"2024-07-01T14:05:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/?p=40666"},"modified":"2024-08-11T12:58:37","modified_gmt":"2024-08-11T17:58:37","slug":"the-2024-senate-campaign-updates-16","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2024\/07\/01\/the-2024-senate-campaign-updates-16\/","title":{"rendered":"The 2024 Senate Campaign: Updates"},"content":{"rendered":"

Previously, on Dragnet<\/strong><\/em><\/a> …<\/p>\n

Coattails<\/h3>\n

For those young readers who’ve not paid attention to politics – understandable, it’s a dreadful business, but part of your civic duty – past general election coverage has often featured the question of metaphorical coattails<\/em>: how much the Presidential candidates’ popularity will enhance the election chances of other members of the Party, sometimes known as downballot influence<\/em>. These are often overestimated, in my opinion, but this election cycle is certainly different from the general run of election cycles, as the switch from Biden to Harris by the Democrats gives an unprecedented opportunity for before-and-after polling. Unfortunately, President Biden failed to give the pollsters a full month’s warning.<\/p>\n

That said, Mz Harris’ selection of Governor Tim Walz (D-MN)<\/a> as her running mate (vice president for the first-time voter – we do like our political jargon here in the States) leads to similar questions. As a white, plump guy who grew up in a rural area and worked on a farm, graduated from Chadron State College<\/a><\/strong><\/em> (compare with Mz Harris’ degree from Howard<\/strong><\/em>, Mr Trump’s from Wharton<\/em><\/strong>, and Mr Vance’s from Yale<\/strong><\/em>), twenty four year career in the Army National Guard<\/strong><\/em>, including deployments, working in a factory and as a high school teacher and football coach, moving on to a successful political career as the Representative for for Minnesota’s 1st congressional district elected in 2006, and then elected Governor of Minnesota in 2018, Walz will have an outsized appeal to the white guy segment of the electorate.<\/p>\n

He projects being plain-spoken, full of self-deprecating humor, and may have the most effective personal presence of the four. His r\u00e9sum\u00ea is just bang-on to appeal to the white guy segment of the electorate, a bare majority of which still lean towards Trump \/ Vance, some believing that Mr Trump is an iconic businessman and boss, others worried about Democratic policies, realized or potential, true or propaganda.<\/p>\n

And how does this play into the Senate races that are still undecided? I think coattails can be effective. If Governor Walz avoids the various potholes certain to be strewn in his path by the Republicans, he may move some voters out of the Republican column, and some of those may even vote Democratic. His invention of the Republicans are weird<\/em> meme has certainly been effective, and who wants to vote for the weird ticket?<\/p>\n

Time will tell.<\/p>\n

Republicans, of course, claim Walz is a terrible pick, a leftist who lies about his military record. Here<\/a>, for instance, is WaPo’s<\/strong><\/em> Marc Thiessen rattling on about Harris’ “unforced error.” For very long-term readers, this would be the same Marc Thiessen who tried to make the case that Mr Trump was the most honest politician ever; I commented on that exercise in poor judgment in one of my more popular posts<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Yeah, he’s a real hack, like most conservative pundits these days.<\/p>\n

Mz Harris, speaking of coattails, fared better<\/a> than President Biden in the latest Marist College<\/strong><\/em> poll (2.9 in the FiveThirtyEight<\/strong><\/em><\/a> pollster ratings), taking a three point lead over Mr Trump, which is within the margin of error.<\/p>\n

Primaries<\/h3>\n

There were several primaries since the last Senate campaign update<\/a>, and I summarize them below. In case you were worried, no, there are still a few primaries in the future for this cycle.<\/p>\n

Facts On The Ground, Please Do Not Trample<\/h3>\n