{"id":40450,"date":"2024-06-20T22:07:40","date_gmt":"2024-06-21T03:07:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/?p=40450"},"modified":"2024-06-20T22:08:02","modified_gmt":"2024-06-21T03:08:02","slug":"the-2024-senate-campaign-updates-9","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2024\/06\/20\/the-2024-senate-campaign-updates-9\/","title":{"rendered":"The 2024 Senate Campaign: Updates"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2024\/06\/13\/the-2024-senate-campaign-updates-8\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Last week<\/a>, this week.<\/p>\n<h2>Foraging After Foregone News<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>File under unsurprising: In <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2024\/04\/02\/the-2024-senate-campaign-sound-fury\/#california\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">California<\/a>, Rep Schiff (D-CA) leads former MLB star Steve Garvey (R-CA) by 25 points, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ppic.org\/publication\/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-june-2024\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">62%-37%<\/a>, according to <em><strong>Public Policy Institute of California<\/strong><\/em> (2.5\/3 stars). This might be a bit much, as it&#8217;s a substantial step up from the previous poll in February by <em><strong>University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies<\/strong><\/em> (also 2.5) that gave Schiff only a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/politics\/story\/2024-03-01\/garvey-schiff-california-senate-primary-election-runoff-poll\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">14 point lead<\/a>. But this is California, either lead is probably insurmountable. I shan&#8217;t mention this race again unless something interesting happens.<\/li>\n<li>So something interesting <em><strong>did<\/strong><\/em> happen with regards to the <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2024\/06\/08\/the-2024-senate-campaign-updates-7\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">West Virginia<\/a> race, and it&#8217;s not (yet) Senator Manchin (I-WV) re-entering the race after initially retiring. Instead, it&#8217;s me remembering that the 33 point lead of Governor Justice (R-WV) over former Mayor Elliott (D-WV) was measured by none other than <em><strong>Kaplan Strategies<\/strong><\/em>. They are the pollsters <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2024\/06\/08\/the-2024-senate-campaign-updates-7\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">who gave<\/a> Nevada Republican Senate nominee candidate Jeffrey Gunter, the sponsor of the particular poll, a 1 point lead, while other pollsters gave Sam Brown a <em>38 point<\/em> lead; Brown won by 40+ points. Now, no sponsor is listed for the West Virginia poll, so maybe the results were not, ummmm, <em>wildly inaccurate<\/em>, but as <em><strong>Kaplan<\/strong><\/em> is now a suspect name, I think it&#8217;s safe to think that Justice&#8217;s real lead may be closer to 15 points, or even smaller. And that makes Manchin&#8217;s potential decision to step into this race even more interesting for Mr. Elliott.<\/li>\n<li>Steve Benen&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.msnbc.com\/rachel-maddow-show\/maddowblog\/rick-scott-runs-ivf-ad-voting-ivf-protections-rcna157479?icid=nextpost_bot\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">report<\/a> on the hypocrisy of Senator Scott (R-FL) concerning <strong>IVF<\/strong> sparks some thoughts. Besides leaving an opening for Democratic challenger Rep Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in this year&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2024\/06\/13\/the-2024-senate-campaign-updates-8\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Florida<\/a> Senator race, I have to wonder if we can see such, shall we call it <em>flexible morality<\/em>, applying to all Republican candidates, or only to those who&#8217;ve climbed the corporate ladder? I must say that, without formally surveying the Republican Senatorial candidates, there are an awful lot of corporate types, rather than the preferable experienced governmental types.<\/li>\n<li>Pre-primary, <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2024\/06\/04\/the-2024-senate-campaign-updates-6\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Minnesota&#8217;s<\/a> Senator Klobuchar (D-MN) has <a href=\"https:\/\/kstp.com\/kstp-news\/top-news\/kstp-surveyusa-poll-klobuchar-with-double-digit-leads-over-gop-candidates\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">14 and 15 point leads<\/a> over the two top candidates for the Republican nomination, <a href=\"https:\/\/ballotpedia.org\/Joe_Fraser_(Minnesota)\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Joe Fraser (R-MN)<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/ballotpedia.org\/Royce_White\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Royce White (R-MN)<\/a>, according to <em><strong>SurveyUSA<\/strong><\/em> (2.8). I&#8217;m surprised it&#8217;s this close, as Klobuchar won in 2018 by 24 points and in 2012 by 35 points, and will pay more attention to this race. Another poll, by top pollster <em><strong>Emerson College<\/strong><\/em> (2.9), gives Klobuchar an 11 point lead over Royce White, <a href=\"https:\/\/emersoncollegepolling.com\/june-2024-state-polls-trump-maintains-edge-over-biden\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">48%-37%<\/a>, which must also be disappointing.<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>Public Opinion Strategies<\/strong><\/em> (1.7), sponsored by the <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/National_Republican_Senatorial_Committee\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em><strong>NRSC<\/strong><\/em><\/a>, has Senator Tester (D-MT) <a href=\"https:\/\/csimgs.com\/montana\/June2024MontanaStatewidePollToplineResults.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">even<\/a> with challenger Tim Sheehy (R-MT). A poll by a mediocre pollster, sponsored by a partisan organization, finding the candidates tied, suggests Tester may actually be ahead.<\/li>\n<li>Progressives may believe that Senator Cruz (R-TX) is vulnerable, but so far the pollsters in <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2024\/05\/24\/the-2024-senate-campaign-updates-4\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Texas<\/a> don&#8217;t agree, as top pollster <em><strong>YouGov<\/strong><\/em> (2.9) gives Cruz an 11 point lead over challenger Rep Allred (D-TX), <a href=\"https:\/\/texaspolitics.utexas.edu\/blog\/most-gop-voters-say-former-president-didn%E2%80%99t-get-fair-trial-new-york-trump-maintains-46-39-lead\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">45%-34%<\/a>. Perhaps the Senator&#8217;s rebrand, reported by <em><strong>The Texas Tribune<\/strong><\/em>, is working; or it may be Rep Allred&#8217;s message is not getting out: <em>41% either expressed no opinion (17%) or a neutral view (24%) of him when asked whether they have a favorable or unfavorable impression of the Democratic congressman from Dallas &#8230;<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em><strong>Public Policy Polling<\/strong><\/em> (1.4) is giving <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2024\/06\/13\/the-2024-senate-campaign-updates-8\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">New Mexico&#8217;s<\/a> Senator Heinrich (D-NM) a 7 point lead, <a href=\"https:\/\/nmpoliticalreport.com\/news\/heinrich-leads-u-s-senate-race-as-general-election-campaigning-starts\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">47%-40%<\/a>, over challenger Nella Domenici (R-NM) in the first poll since the New Mexico primaries. Seeing as Heinrich won in 2018 by 24 points, this result may be a trifle alarming for Democrats, but Domenici is the daughter of former New Mexico Senator Pete Domenici (R-NM), and so, at least for older voters, it&#8217;s a familiar name. It may not be relevant, but Heinrich won in 2012 by 5+ points. In other news, <em><strong>Axios<\/strong><\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/2024\/05\/28\/republican-senate-candidate-nella-domenici-new-mexico-ad\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">reports<\/a> that Republicans view this as a sleeper race: <em>With her name ID and personal wealth, national Republicans see the race as a sleeper that may also force Democrats to\u00a0<a class=\"gtmContentClick\" href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/2024\/05\/03\/senate-gop-election-majority-key-races-to-watch\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"noopener\" data-vars-link-text=\"spend resources\" data-vars-click-url=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/2024\/05\/03\/senate-gop-election-majority-key-races-to-watch\" data-vars-content-id=\"755d053e-58ac-4b30-9886-9715d39797c2\" data-vars-headline=\"Scoop: Sleeper GOP Senate candidate debuts first ad\" data-vars-event-category=\"story\" data-vars-sub-category=\"story\" data-vars-item=\"in_content_link\">spend resources<\/a>\u00a0defending what is considered a safe seat.<\/em><\/li>\n<li>In contrast with <em><strong>YouGov&#8217;s<\/strong><\/em> (2.9) <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2024\/05\/24\/the-2024-senate-campaign-updates-4\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">award of a 13 point lead<\/a> to Rep Gallego (D-AZ) over Kari Lake (R-AZ) in the race for the open Senate seat in contested <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2024\/05\/24\/the-2024-senate-campaign-updates-4\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Arizona<\/a>, <em><strong>Emerson College<\/strong><\/em> (also 2.9) gives Gallego a mere 5 point lead, 45%-41%.<\/li>\n<li>With primaries still to come, <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2024\/06\/08\/the-2024-senate-campaign-updates-7\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Michigan<\/a> prospective nominees Rep Slotkin (D-MI) leads hard liner former Rep Mike Rogers (R-MI) by 5 points, <a href=\"https:\/\/emersoncollegepolling.com\/june-2024-state-polls-trump-maintains-edge-over-biden\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">43%-39%<\/a>, according to <em><strong>Emerson College<\/strong><\/em> (2.9). While folks who demand instant results from the Democrats may be discontented, I doubt they&#8217;ll vote for Rogers in sufficient numbers to beat Slotkin absent a black swan event.<\/li>\n<li>In the first poll in <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2024\/06\/13\/the-2024-senate-campaign-updates-8\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Nevada<\/a> since their primaries, <em><strong>Emerson College<\/strong><\/em> (2.9) gives Senator Rosen (D-NV) a big 12 point lead over challenger Sam Brown (R-NV), <a href=\"https:\/\/emersoncollegepolling.com\/june-2024-state-polls-trump-maintains-edge-over-biden\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">50%-38%<\/a>. For locally confident Republicans that must have come as quite a shock.<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>Emerson College<\/strong><\/em> (2.9) gives <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2024\/06\/13\/the-2024-senate-campaign-updates-8\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Pennsylvania<\/a> Senator Casey (D-PA) a 6 point lead over David McCormick (R-PA?), <a href=\"https:\/\/emersoncollegepolling.com\/june-2024-state-polls-trump-maintains-edge-over-biden\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">47%-41%<\/a>. This is congruent with previous Pennsylvania polls and suggests Mr McCormick has a steep mountain to climb.<\/li>\n<li>And in <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2024\/06\/08\/the-2024-senate-campaign-updates-7\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Wisconsin<\/a>,\u00a0<em><strong>Emerson College<\/strong><\/em> (2.9) gives Senator Baldwin (D-WI) a 3 point lead over challenger Eric Hovde (R-WI?), <a href=\"https:\/\/emersoncollegepolling.com\/june-2024-state-polls-trump-maintains-edge-over-biden\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">46%-44%<\/a>. A jitter in the data stream or is Baldwin losing steam? Only time will tell, and it&#8217;s notoriously close-mouthed.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2024\/06\/04\/the-2024-senate-campaign-updates-6\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Maryland&#8217;s<\/a> popular former governor and Senate candidate Larry Hogan (R-MD) has been endorsed by Mr. Trump, and <a href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/homenews\/campaign\/4732563-larry-hogan-donald-trump-endorsement\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">wants to take a shower to wash off the stench, apparently<\/a>:\n<p><em>\u201cWell, I just said I didn\u2019t \u2026 I didn\u2019t seek it, I didn\u2019t wanna have it, and I have no interest in it. It\u2019s not something we\u2019re gonna be promoting, that\u2019s for sure,\u201d Hogan, a common Trump critic, said in an interview with D.C.-area radio station WTOP when asked if he rejects the endorsement.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>And now off to prepare for tomorrow&#8217;s flooding in Minnesota. Is caviar inappropriate?<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/PXL_20240609_191640720-scaled.jpg?ssl=1\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-40466\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/PXL_20240609_191640720-scaled.jpg?resize=800%2C1067&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"1067\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/PXL_20240609_191640720-scaled.jpg?w=1920&amp;ssl=1 1920w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/PXL_20240609_191640720-scaled.jpg?resize=225%2C300&amp;ssl=1 225w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/PXL_20240609_191640720-scaled.jpg?resize=768%2C1024&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/PXL_20240609_191640720-scaled.jpg?resize=1152%2C1536&amp;ssl=1 1152w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/PXL_20240609_191640720-scaled.jpg?resize=1536%2C2048&amp;ssl=1 1536w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/PXL_20240609_191640720-scaled.jpg?resize=113%2C150&amp;ssl=1 113w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/PXL_20240609_191640720-scaled.jpg?w=1600&amp;ssl=1 1600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Last week, this week. Foraging After Foregone News File under unsurprising: In California, Rep Schiff (D-CA) leads former MLB star Steve Garvey (R-CA) by 25 points, 62%-37%, according to Public Policy Institute of California (2.5\/3 stars). This might be a bit much, as it&#8217;s a substantial step up from the \u2026 <a class=\"continue-reading-link\" href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2024\/06\/20\/the-2024-senate-campaign-updates-9\/\"> Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr; <\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-40450","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40450","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=40450"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40450\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":40468,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40450\/revisions\/40468"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40450"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=40450"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=40450"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}