{"id":37837,"date":"2022-12-02T21:26:26","date_gmt":"2022-12-03T03:26:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/?p=37837"},"modified":"2022-12-02T21:26:26","modified_gmt":"2022-12-03T03:26:26","slug":"the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-49","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/12\/02\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-49\/","title":{"rendered":"The 2022 Senate Campaign: Updates"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Since the last update &#8230;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Senator Murkowski (R) of <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/10\/26\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-41\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Alaska<\/a> has won her race over fellow Republican and Trump-endorsed <a title=\"Kelly Tshibaka\" href=\"https:\/\/ballotpedia.org\/Kelly_Tshibaka\">Kelly Tshibaka<\/a>; Patricia Chesbro (D) was also part of the cheese grater action, which I characterize in this manner since, after all the conservative chatter about the Senator being on the edge of failure, <a href=\"https:\/\/ballotpedia.org\/United_States_Senate_election_in_Alaska,_2022\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">she coasted to a 7+ point victory over Tshibaka<\/a>. As I, and a host of pundits, expected, ranked choice voting vastly increases the chances for moderates even in highly polarized environments, as most independents would prefer a steady and predictable legislator like Murkowski over the product of a Party that seems controlled by radicals.<\/li>\n<li>The <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/11\/22\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-48\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Georgia<\/a> runoff is this Tuesday, which means the pollsters have had a bit of time to run polls. <em><strong>CNN<\/strong><\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2022\/12\/02\/politics\/cnn-poll-georgia-senate-runoff-election\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">sponsored<\/a> a poll by <a href=\"https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/pollster-ratings\/ssrs\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">C rated<\/a><a href=\"#1\"><sup>[1]<\/sup><\/a> <em><strong>SSRS<\/strong><\/em> that shows Senator Warnock (R) leading challenger Herschel Walker (R) 52% to 48%, with a margin of error of \u00b1 3 points. A <a href=\"https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/pollster-ratings\/surveyusa\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">rated<\/a> <em><strong>SurveyUSA<\/strong><\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.surveyusa.com\/client\/PollReport.aspx?g=ec76271b-9c31-41b7-9c15-4d281bc48cd7\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">gives<\/a> Warnock a 50% &#8211; 47% lead with no margin of error given. A- rated <strong><em>Emerson College Polling<\/em><\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/homenews\/campaign\/3757013-warnock-holds-narrow-lead-over-walker-in-georgia-runoff-poll\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">gives<\/a> Warnock a 49% to 47% lead, with a \u00b1 3.2 point margin of error. Place your bet and take your chances.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>It&#8217;s encouraging to see no conservative pollsters in the mix here, because, while I have not systematically studied their results, my impression is that, as a group, they diverged from the less obviously linked pollsters near the middle of October onwards, and it was the conservative pollsters who seemed to perform worse. For example:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>In <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/11\/05\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-46\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">New Hampshire<\/a>, some conservative pollsters gave challenger Don Bolduc (R) a small lead over Senator Hassan (D), while others called it a dead heat. Then pollster <em><strong>Lowell Center<\/strong><\/em> gave Hassan a ten point lead, pointedly out of step with everyone else. Hassan&#8217;s final margin of victory? <a href=\"https:\/\/ballotpedia.org\/Maggie_Hassan\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">10 points<\/a>. That&#8217;s more comfortable than Murkowski&#8217;s victory.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/11\/05\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-46\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Pennsylvania&#8217;s<\/a> race between Lt. Governor John Fetterman (D) and Dr. Oz Mehmet (R) for an open seat was ultimately a <a href=\"https:\/\/ballotpedia.org\/John_Fetterman\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">3+ point<\/a> win for Fetterman, when various conservative pollsters suggested Oz was pulling ahead. However and notably, the last <em><strong>Fox News<\/strong><\/em> poll showed Fetterman up by 3 points.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>But how did <em><strong>SurveyUSA<\/strong><\/em> do overall? <em><strong>Emerson College<\/strong><\/em>? I&#8217;m waiting for <em><strong>FiveThirtyEight&#8217;s<\/strong><\/em> analysis.<\/p>\n<p>What&#8217;ll happen in Georgia on Tuesday? I cannot imagine a Senator speaking gibberish like Walker speaks it, so I can only hope Warnock manages to take the seat. I have far more confidence in his grasp of national and international issues than I do with Walker.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><a name=\"1\"><\/a><sup>1<\/sup> All ratings continue to be from <em><strong>FiveThirtyEight&#8217;s<\/strong><\/em> ratings following the 2020 election, calculated in March of 2021.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Since the last update &#8230; Senator Murkowski (R) of Alaska has won her race over fellow Republican and Trump-endorsed Kelly Tshibaka; Patricia Chesbro (D) was also part of the cheese grater action, which I characterize in this manner since, after all the conservative chatter about the Senator being on the \u2026 <a class=\"continue-reading-link\" href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/12\/02\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-49\/\"> Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr; <\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-37837","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37837","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37837"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37837\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":37840,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37837\/revisions\/37840"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37837"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37837"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37837"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}