{"id":3783,"date":"2016-06-10T13:02:14","date_gmt":"2016-06-10T18:02:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/?p=3783"},"modified":"2016-06-10T13:02:14","modified_gmt":"2016-06-10T18:02:14","slug":"that-darn-climate-change-conspiracy-ctd-16","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2016\/06\/10\/that-darn-climate-change-conspiracy-ctd-16\/","title":{"rendered":"That Darn Climate Change Conspiracy, Ctd"},"content":{"rendered":"

Michael LePage reports an update on climate change<\/a> modeling in NewScientist<\/strong><\/em> (28 May 2016, paywall):<\/p>\n

The bottom line is that low values for the immediate warming in response to a doubling of CO2<\/sub> can now be ruled out. Similarly, low values for the warming in the decades following a doubling of CO2<\/sub> can also be ruled out.<\/p>\n

In its last report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) changed its estimate of warming<\/a> after a doubling of CO2<\/sub> from between 2 and 4.5 \u00b0C to between 1.5 and 4.5 \u00b0C, based on studies like Forster\u2019s. This relatively minor change was seized upon by climate-change deniers as proof that the dangers of global warming had been exaggerated.<\/p>\n

The next IPCC report will be revised back upwards, Shindell thinks. But the IPCC was right to lower it when it did, he says: its reports have to be based on the evidence available at the time.<\/p>\n

While we can now rule out low estimates of climate sensitivity, Shindell says, we can\u2019t rule out high estimates. \u201cThere\u2019s a long tail of very high sensitivity that should dominate our thinking,\u201d he says. When we buy house insurance, we take the worst-case scenarios \u2013 fires and floods \u2013 into account, Shindell points out. With climate change, we should also act based on the worst case scenarios.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

MIT’<\/strong><\/em>s latest report<\/a> on Climate Change, ENERGY & CLIMATE OUTLOOK PERSPECTIVES FROM 2015<\/strong><\/em>:<\/p>\n

With emissions stable and falling in Developed countries, on the assumption that the Paris pledges made at COP21 are met and retained in the post-2030 period, future emissions growth will come from the Other G20 and developing countries.<\/p>\n

Growth in global emissions results in 64 gigatons (Gt) CO2<\/sub>-eq emissions in 2050, rising to 78 Gt by 2100 (a 63% increase in emissions relative to 2010). By 2050 the Developed countries account for about 15% of global emissions, down from 30% in 2010.<\/p>\n

CO2<\/sub> emissions from fossil fuels remain the largest source of GHGs, but other greenhouse gas emissions and non-fossil energy sources of CO2<\/sub> account for almost 1\/3 of total global GHG emissions by 2100, slightly down from the 35% in 2010.<\/p>\n

Emissions from electricity and transportation will together account for about 51% of global CO2<\/sub> emissions from fossil fuel use in 2050, decreasing slightly from the 56% in 2010.<\/p>\n

Energy from fossil fuels continues to account for about 75% of primary energy by 2050, despite rapid growth in renewables and nuclear, in part because the natural gas share of primary energy also increases.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change<\/strong><\/em> (IPCC<\/strong><\/em>) contributes<\/a> this time series on CO2<\/sub> advancement.<\/p>\n

\"CO2
\nMeanwhile, at Mauna Koa’s NOAA<\/strong><\/em> station<\/a>:<\/p>\n

\"CO2
\nThe march upward continues.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Michael LePage reports an update on climate change modeling in NewScientist (28 May 2016, paywall): The bottom line is that low values for the immediate warming in response to a doubling of CO2 can now be ruled out. Similarly, low values for the warming in the decades following a doubling \u2026 Continue reading → <\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3783","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3783","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3783"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3783\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3785,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3783\/revisions\/3785"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3783"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3783"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3783"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}