{"id":37613,"date":"2022-10-26T08:39:13","date_gmt":"2022-10-26T13:39:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/?p=37613"},"modified":"2022-10-30T19:13:38","modified_gmt":"2022-10-31T00:13:38","slug":"the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-41","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/10\/26\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-41\/","title":{"rendered":"The 2022 Senate Campaign: Updates"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>This isn&#8217;t the last roundup. Not yet. In other news&#8230;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/10\/12\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-34\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Alaska&#8217;s<\/a> Senator Murkowski (R) has been endorsed by Alaska Rep Peltola (D), who shockingly won the special election to replace the late Rep Don Young (R) last month, and Murkowski has endorsed Peltola. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/politics\/2022\/10\/24\/murkowski-peltola-alaska\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Or at least that&#8217;s how I read this<\/a>: <em>Asked if she would rank Peltola first on her ballot next month in Alaska\u2019s new ranked-choice voting system, Murkowski paused. After a full 18 seconds, she said, \u201cYeah, I am.\u201d She then mumbled, \u201cI\u2019m going to get in so much trouble.\u201d<\/em> And in return: <em>Asked to respond to Murkowski\u2019s de facto endorsement, Peltola said, \u201cI\u2019m voting for her, so we\u2019re even-steven.\u201d<\/em> In case you missed it, my take on this is <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/10\/25\/big-things-start-small\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>CNN<\/strong><\/em> and <em><strong>SSRS<\/strong><\/em>, the latter only C <a href=\"https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/pollster-ratings\/ssrs\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">rated<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/s3.documentcloud.org\/documents\/23178929\/cnn-poll-on-wisconsin.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">suggest<\/a> that Senator Johnson (R) of <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/10\/14\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-36\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Wisconsin<\/a> holds a 1 point lead at 50% to 49%, with a margin of error of \u00b1 4.5 points for likely voters. Salt shaker? Yes.<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>CNN<\/strong><\/em> and <em><strong>SSRS <\/strong><\/em>also <a href=\"https:\/\/s3.documentcloud.org\/documents\/23178936\/cnn-poll-on-pennsylvania.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">suggest<\/a> that Lt. Governor Fetterman&#8217;s (D) hunt for the soon-to-be empty <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/10\/23\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-40\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Pennsylvania<\/a> Senate seat is going well, giving him a 51% to 45% lead over Dr. Oz Mehmet (R), with a \u00b1 4.6 point margin of error. Again, salt shaker. Maybe hang them from your ears. <em><strong>CBS News\/YouGov<\/strong><\/em>, on the other hand, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/2022-election-john-fetterman-dr-mehmet-oz-pennsylvania-senate-race-cbs-poll\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">gives<\/a> Fetterman a much smaller lead of 51% to 49%. In other news, unaffiliated Senate candidate Everett Stern (I), who was supposedly polling at 3% &#8211; he doesn&#8217;t show up in the aforementioned <em><strong>CNN\/SSRS<\/strong><\/em> poll &#8211; has dropped out, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dailykos.com\/stories\/2022\/10\/25\/2131250\/-Third-Party-Senate-Candidate-in-PA-drops-out-Endorses-Fetterman?pm_source=story_sidebar&amp;pm_medium=web&amp;pm_campaign=recommended\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">according<\/a> to sharecare on <strong><em>Daily Kos<\/em><\/strong>. No data sources are given by sharecare, but a <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/EverettStern1\/status\/1584976258693492736?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1584976258693492736%7Ctwgr%5Ef3add64b7226e16a6d53afb088e5304a495c5a32%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&amp;ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstory%2F2022%2F10%2F25%2F2131250%2F-Third-Party-Senate-Candidate-in-PA-drops-out-Endorses-Fetterman\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">tweet<\/a> from Stern announces his withdrawal and endorsement of Fetterman. Take it for what you will, <a href=\"https:\/\/ballotpedia.org\/Everett_Stern\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">but he <strong>is<\/strong> listed<\/a> on <em><strong>Ballotpedia<\/strong><\/em> as a candidate for this Senate seat, so this may be more or less accurate information. If Fetterman wins by less than 3 points, he&#8217;ll owe Stern a beer.<\/li>\n<li>Paywalled <em><strong>The New York Times<\/strong><\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2022\/10\/21\/us\/politics\/nh-gop-ads-bolduc.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">reports<\/a> Senator McConnell&#8217;s (R) <strong>Senate Leadership Fund<\/strong> is canceling any further support for challenger Don Bolduc&#8217;s (R) pursuit of Senator Hassasn (D) in <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/10\/19\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-38\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">New Hampshire<\/a>. Meanwhile, <em><strong>Emerson College<\/strong><\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/homenews\/campaign\/3702605-hassan-leads-bolduc-by-3-points-in-new-hampshire-senate-race\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">gives<\/a> Hassan a 48% to 45% lead and <em><strong>GOP<\/strong><\/em> aligned <em><strong>Insider Advantage<\/strong><\/em>, B <a href=\"https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/pollster-ratings\/opinion-savvy-insideradvantage\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">rated<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/amgreatness.com\/2022\/10\/24\/republican-don-bolduc-in-dead-heat-with-democrat-maggie-hassan-in-new-hampshire-u-s-senate-race\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">gives<\/a> Hassan a 47.6% to 47.1% advantage. Question: If it&#8217;s that close, you&#8217;d think the <strong><em>SLF<\/em><\/strong> would stick around, wouldn&#8217;t you? Perhaps Bolduc is simply too revolting even for McConnell. Or maybe <strong><em>SLF&#8217;s<\/em><\/strong> internal polling isn&#8217;t congruent with <em><strong>Insider Advantage<\/strong><\/em>.<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>WaPo<\/strong><\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/elections\/2022\/10\/24\/rise-of-independent-voters\/?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=newsletter&amp;wpisrc=nl_most&amp;carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F3835fe8%2F6356b9f2f3d9003c581988dc%2F59ee10d9ae7e8a504fd8ecd3%2F30%2F72%2F6356b9f2f3d9003c581988dc&amp;wp_cu=9055fac022b53fc12e7e48b712be9bf1%7C5C39B574A4EE418DE0530100007F3ABF\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">notes<\/a> that the ranks of independent voters are growing, suggesting unhappiness with at least one party. <strong>Notable<\/strong>: <em>Christopher Cooper, political science professor at Western Carolina University, recently co-wrote research examining the rise of the unaffiliated voter in North Carolina and nationally. \u201cVoters are signaling something to us. A lot of smart folks might disagree with me and say, \u2018Look, so many of these are shadow partisans. Don\u2019t worry about them,\u2019 \u201d said Cooper, referring to voters who say they are nonpartisan but lean toward one party mostly. \u201cI think the voters are trying to say they may not be able to escape the two-party system, but they\u2019re going to push back on it when they can.\u201d<\/em> In other words, cut out the extremism, the bulging eyes, the hair-on-fire arrogance of modern politics. If you can&#8217;t cut it out, then return to the barstools from whence you came, because positions ranging from <em>strict anti-abortionism<\/em> to <em>defunding the police<\/em> are not acceptable to many voters, and they&#8217;re leaving the parties and making a point. How this will affect the Senate races? I&#8217;m guessing independents, appalled by <em>Dobbs<\/em>, will lean to the Democrats, but they may just stay home out of disgust.<\/li>\n<li>In <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/10\/16\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-37\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Connecticut<\/a> a <em><strong>Quinnipiac University<\/strong><\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/poll.qu.edu\/poll-release?releaseid=3860\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">poll<\/a> gives Senator Blumenthal (D) a 56% &#8211; 41% lead over challenger Leora Levy (R), which seems far more reasonable than the last Connecticut Senate poll from ten or so days ago, in which pollster <em><strong>Fabrizio<\/strong><\/em> found Blumenthal had only a five point lead. <em><strong>Fabrizio<\/strong><\/em> is B\/C rated, while <strong><em>QU<\/em><\/strong> is A- <a href=\"https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/pollster-ratings\/quinnipiac-university\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">rated<\/a>. Final results will show if <em><strong>Fabrizio<\/strong><\/em> has improved and <em><strong>QU<\/strong><\/em> degraded &#8211; or not.<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>GOP<\/strong><\/em>-aligned <em><strong>Trafalgar<\/strong><\/em> is now <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thetrafalgargroup.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/GA-Gen-Full-Report-1024.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">giving<\/a> challenger Herschel Walker (R) a 48.9% to 46.5% lead over Senator Warnock (D) in <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/10\/20\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-39\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Georgia<\/a>. Chase Oliver (L) has a 4.6% proportion of the survey, and the survey has a margin of error of \u00b1 2.9 points.<\/li>\n<li>B+ <a href=\"https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/pollster-ratings\/cygnal\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">rated<\/a> <em><strong>Cygnal<\/strong><\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cygn.al\/cygnal-momentum-tracking-poll-ohio-statewide-10-29-22\/\">gives<\/a> J. D. Vance (R) a 46.9% to 43.3% lead over Rep Tim Ryan (D) in <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/10\/20\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-39\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ohio<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/10\/08\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-33\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Oregon&#8217;s<\/a> Senator Wyden (D) <a href=\"https:\/\/www.filesforprogress.org\/datasets\/2022\/10\/dfp_oregon_october18_2022_tabs.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">continues to lead<\/a> challenger Jo Rae Perkins, 51% to 40%, according to B <a href=\"https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/pollster-ratings\/data-for-progress\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">rated<\/a> <em><strong>Data For Progress<\/strong><\/em>. While closer than the last poll, Perkins still has an immense amount of ground to make up in the next two weeks against a sitting Senator, even with this poll&#8217;s margin of error of \u00b1 3 points.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Last update <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/10\/23\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-40\/\">here<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This isn&#8217;t the last roundup. Not yet. In other news&#8230; Alaska&#8217;s Senator Murkowski (R) has been endorsed by Alaska Rep Peltola (D), who shockingly won the special election to replace the late Rep Don Young (R) last month, and Murkowski has endorsed Peltola. Or at least that&#8217;s how I read \u2026 <a class=\"continue-reading-link\" href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/10\/26\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-41\/\"> Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr; <\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-37613","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37613","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37613"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37613\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":37652,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37613\/revisions\/37652"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37613"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37613"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37613"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}