{"id":37574,"date":"2022-10-16T21:01:30","date_gmt":"2022-10-17T02:01:30","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/?p=37574"},"modified":"2022-10-16T21:01:30","modified_gmt":"2022-10-17T02:01:30","slug":"the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-37","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/10\/16\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-37\/","title":{"rendered":"The 2022 Senate Campaign: Updates"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>This is like a spoonful of medicine, isn&#8217;t it? Just don&#8217;t drool, eh?<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>In a surprising, at least to me, result, <strong><em>Fabrizio, Lee &amp; Associates<\/em><\/strong>, B\/C <a href=\"https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/pollster-ratings\/fabrizio-lee-associates\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">rated<\/a>, reports Senator Blumenthal (D) of <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/09\/29\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-29\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Connecticut<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/ctexaminer.com\/2022\/10\/15\/its-the-economy-stupid-new-poll-shows-tightening-races-for-governor-and-senate\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">leads<\/a> challenger Leora Levy (R) by only five points, 49% &#8211; 44%. <strong><em>Notable remark<\/em><\/strong> from Professor Steven Moore of <em><strong>Wesleyan University<\/strong><\/em>: <em>Clearly, the economy is the thing that people care about and it\u2019s the thing they\u2019re noticing<\/em>. I can&#8217;t help but notice that the disruption is a result of the Democrats having to clean up after the Republicans&#8217; blunders in economy management throughout the former President&#8217;s single term. Much like they did after both Bush I and Bush II. It should not be a surprise that in addition to Republican incompetence, in the wake of <em>Putin&#8217;s War<\/em> and supply line disruptions caused by the pandemic, inflation is up. I might point out that the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.msnbc.com\/rachel-maddow-show\/maddowblog\/job-growth-beats-expectations-jobless-rate-falls-35-rcna51188\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">job situation is currently excellent,<\/a>\u00a0if you&#8217;re a worker and not an employer.<\/li>\n<li>Another surprise for me: The <em><strong>Des Moines Register<\/strong><\/em> poll\u00a0shows Senator Grassley (R) of <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/10\/12\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-34\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Iowa<\/a>, the dude within kissing distance of 90, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.desmoinesregister.com\/story\/news\/politics\/iowa-poll\/2022\/10\/15\/iowa-us-senate-race-chuck-grassley-mike-franken-poll-election\/69562063007\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">leads<\/a> challenger Admiral Franken (ret.) (D), but only by 3 points, 46% &#8211; 43%, with a margin of error of \u00b1 3.5 points &#8211; technically, a dead heat. By comparison, the poll previous to this, run by A- <a href=\"https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/pollster-ratings\/emerson-college\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">rated<\/a> <em><strong>Emerson College<\/strong><\/em> last week, gave Senator Grassley a 49% &#8211; 38%, 11 point lead. So, does the local rag know more about Iowa than <em><strong>Emerson College<\/strong><\/em>? <strong><em>Des Moines Register<\/em><\/strong> isn&#8217;t even listed on <em><strong>FiveThirtyEight<\/strong><\/em> &#8230; oh, wait, down here the <strong><em>Des Moines Register<\/em><\/strong> says the poll was run by <em><strong>Selzer &amp; Co<\/strong><\/em>. Never heard of them. Probably not listed, either &#8230; oh, here they are. <strong>A+ <a href=\"https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/pollster-ratings\/selzer-co\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">rated<\/a>.<\/strong> Sheeeit. Mumble! So what&#8217;s going on? Let me speculate:<br \/>\n<hr width=\"0\" \/>\n<p>In mid-late September, a <a href=\"https:\/\/dailyiowan.com\/2022\/09\/19\/u-s-senate-candidate-mike-franken-accused-of-assault-by-former-campaign-manager\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">news story surfaced<\/a> in which Franken was accused of sexual assault way back in March. Des Moines police refused to file charges, calling the accusation unfounded. The <em><strong>Emerson College<\/strong><\/em> poll came a few days after that, and perhaps the news, even with Franken&#8217;s denial and the backing of the Des Moines police, led some voters to pick Grassley over Franken.<\/p>\n<hr width=\"0\" \/>\n<p>Then the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.msn.com\/en-us\/news\/politics\/chuck-grassley-mike-franken-clash-on-abortion-inflation-in-us-senate-debate\/ar-AA12GHLx#image=AA12GtIH%7C2\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">one and only debate<\/a> between Grassley and Franken was held on October 6th, and the <strong><em>Selzer &amp; Co<\/em><\/strong> poll occurred three days later. If Grassley&#8217;s performance in the debate was poor, or reminded voters that his positions are not consonant with their positions, then they may have swung back to Franken. Here&#8217;s a <em><strong>PolitiFact<\/strong><\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politifact.com\/article\/2022\/oct\/12\/womens-issues-and-few-other-fact-checks-iowas-us-s\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">article<\/a> fact-checking the debate.<\/p>\n<p>That&#8217;s just guesses, though. Iowa goes back on the <em>Could be an upset list<\/em>.<\/li>\n<li>The surprises keep coming: <em><strong>Hill Research<\/strong><\/em>, B\/C <a href=\"https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/pollster-ratings\/hill-research-consultants\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">rated<\/a>, performed a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dropbox.com\/s\/x1g649dobv2m0d8\/Utah%20poll%20results%20memo%20Oct.pdf?dl=0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">survey<\/a> in <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/10\/13\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-35\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Utah<\/a> recently and found challenger Evan McMullin (I) <em>leading<\/em> Senator Lee (R), and in two different metrics. First, if measuring without &#8220;leaners,&#8221; the lead is 46% &#8211; 42%. Second, if &#8220;leaners&#8221; are added to totals, then the lead is 49% &#8211; 43%. A B\/C rating is not an A+ rating, so this poll must be taken with a medium sized grain of salt, and the numbers are at variance with other recent polls, including some cited below. However, they <strong>are<\/strong> congruent with Senator Lee&#8217;s begging Utah colleague Senator Romney (R) to endorse him. Much like Iowa, Utah is on the <em>Could be an upset list<\/em>.<\/li>\n<li>Erick Erickson is <a href=\"https:\/\/ewerickson.substack.com\/p\/raphael-warnock-wont-support-the\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>appalled<\/strong><\/a> that Senator Warnock of <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/10\/14\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-36\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Georgia<\/a> doesn&#8217;t support the name <em>Braves<\/em>, as in the <em><strong>Major League Baseball<\/strong><\/em> team based in Atlanta, claiming the American Indian tribes do support that use of this American Indian associated term. Maybe they do, maybe they don&#8217;t, I&#8217;ve never heard; I believe they don&#8217;t support the &#8220;chop&#8221; used by fans to be part of the team, so why would they support the use of a name associated with them? But if the tribes <em>do<\/em> support the use of the name, and the left insists it be changed, then there&#8217;s a case to be made for a clear denial of self-agency by the left to the tribes. And that&#8217;d be fairly patronizing, no? But, as I said, I don&#8217;t know that the tribes have said it&#8217;s OK, and I don&#8217;t trust Erickson&#8217;s word on the matter.<\/li>\n<li>Enough with the surprises! <em><strong>GOP<\/strong><\/em>-aligned <em><strong>Trafalgar<\/strong><\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thetrafalgargroup.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/TRF-OH-Gen-Poll-Report-1013.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">gives<\/a> J. D. Vance (R) a 47.3% &#8211; 43.8% lead over Rep Ryan (D) in <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/10\/14\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-36\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ohio<\/a>, with a margin of error of \u00b1 2.9 points. This is seriously out of step with other polls.<\/li>\n<li>The <em><strong>Deseret News<\/strong><\/em> has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.deseret.com\/2022\/10\/14\/23393252\/republican-mike-lee-independent-evan-mcmullin-senate-race-utah-poll\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">published<\/a> an article on the <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/10\/13\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-35\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Utah<\/a> race between Senator Mike Lee (R), a close Trump ally, and challenger Evan McMullin (I), Democrat-endorsed, which includes this paragraph:<br \/>\n<blockquote><p>Lee\u2019s internal polling shows him up 18 points, according to his campaign. McMullin\u2019s internal poll shows him ahead by one.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Someone&#8217;s in for a shock come November, but I&#8217;m not sure who. The last poll published by <strong><em>Deseret News<\/em><\/strong> gave Lee a four point lead, but with a large undecided segment, which arguably favors McMullin. Also, if you&#8217;re not a linear reader, then go back up above and see the Utah news about a poll by <strong><em>Hill Research<\/em><\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>That last update, already out of date, was a <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/10\/14\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-36\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">real mouthful<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>On an administrative note, getting this blogging platform to retain paragraph breaks in the midst of &#8220;ul&#8221; lists is problematic, but I still apologize for extra-long, mixed topic paragraphs. Just because it&#8217;s the right thing to do.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This is like a spoonful of medicine, isn&#8217;t it? Just don&#8217;t drool, eh? In a surprising, at least to me, result, Fabrizio, Lee &amp; Associates, B\/C rated, reports Senator Blumenthal (D) of Connecticut leads challenger Leora Levy (R) by only five points, 49% &#8211; 44%. Notable remark from Professor Steven \u2026 <a class=\"continue-reading-link\" href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/10\/16\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-37\/\"> Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr; <\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-37574","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37574","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37574"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37574\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":37588,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37574\/revisions\/37588"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37574"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37574"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37574"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}