{"id":37534,"date":"2022-10-12T07:35:39","date_gmt":"2022-10-12T12:35:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/?p=37534"},"modified":"2022-10-12T07:35:39","modified_gmt":"2022-10-12T12:35:39","slug":"the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-34","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/10\/12\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-34\/","title":{"rendered":"The 2022 Senate Campaign: Updates"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Godzilla wipes out Tokyo. <em>Of course<\/em>. The <em>kaiju<\/em> have to sign up in advance to do that. In other news:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>In a baffling move, incumbents up for reelection Lankford (R-OK), Rubio (R-FL), and Lee (R-UT) are <a href=\"https:\/\/www.lankford.senate.gov\/imo\/media\/doc\/Lankford%20Lee%20Protect%20Drug%20Innovation%20Act.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">sponsoring<\/a> a Senate bill named <em>Protect Drug Innovation Act<\/em>, which is &#8220;To repeal prescription drug price control provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act.&#8221; As this part of the <em>Inflation Reduction Act<\/em> is both popular and beneficial to the elderly segment of the electorate, this seems an unnecessary risk on the part of these Senators. But can Schumer perform a bit of <em>aikido<\/em> on them? He might grant it discussion and a vote, against their expectation, thus gathering material for their <em>and other<\/em> Senate races to benefit their opponents. That, however, would require confidence in how members of his own caucus would vote.<\/li>\n<li>Senator Hassan (D) of <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/10\/08\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-33\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">New Hampshire<\/a> continues to hold a lead over challenger Don Bolduc (R), according to A\/B <a style=\"outline-width: 0px !important; user-select: auto !important;\" href=\"https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/pollster-ratings\/saint-anselm-college\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">rated<\/a> <em><strong>Saint Anselm College<\/strong><\/em>. <a href=\"https:\/\/htv-prod-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/files\/sacsc-nhsw-0922-book-1664922880.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">They give her double the lead<\/a> that conservative-leaning <em><strong>Trafalgar<\/strong><\/em> has accorded her, a lead of six points, with a margin of error of \u00b1 3.3 points. <strong>Notable<\/strong>: <em>In a successful tactic sure to be become more widespread in coming cycles, Democratic groups spent millions of dollars to help secure the nominations of explicitly pro-Trump Republican candidates. These nominees now face a general electorate in which 52% of voters have a strongly unfavorable opinion of the former president<\/em>. <em><strong>Saint Anselm<\/strong><\/em> is premature in this conclusion. The fact you got who you wanted doesn&#8217;t guarantee victory. In fact, an extremist is more likely to interfere, post-election, in a destructive manner with the inauguration. And some <em><strong>GOP<\/strong><\/em> state parties are entirely controlled by extremists who want little to do with <em><strong>GOP<\/strong><\/em> moderates, so ensuring the nomination of a moderate may be more productive. This point seems less applicable to Democrat state parties, as lefty extremists have not seen the success of their far-right counterparts. The domestic cultural history just isn&#8217;t there.<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>CBS News Polls\/YouGov<\/strong><\/em> are <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/wisconsin-senate-ron-johnson-mandela-barnes-opinion-poll-2022-10-09\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">giving<\/a> Senator Johnson (R) of <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/10\/01\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-30\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Wisconsin<\/a> a 1 point lead over Lt. Governor Barnes (D), 50% &#8211; 49%. Call it a <em>dead heat<\/em>. <strong>Notable<\/strong>: <em>Republicans appear to have a turnout advantage. They are four points more likely than Democrats to say they&#8217;re definitely voting this year, and Johnson supporters are ten points more likely than Barnes backers to say they&#8217;re very enthusiastic about voting<\/em>. Enthusiastic to vote for Johnson, who runs around threatening old, stable social net programs while spewing conspiracy rumors. My neighbors to the East are decidedly an odd bunch, but I&#8217;m not surprised, given their recent election habits.<\/li>\n<li>Former President Trump&#8217;s <strong><em>Make America Great Again Inc<\/em><\/strong> super PAC is finally getting involved in four hot races, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/donald-trump-pac-jumps-into-ohio-pennsylvania-senate-races-11665104859?mod=hp_listb_pos2\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Pennsylvania and Ohio<\/a>, as well as <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/live\/2022\/10\/07\/us\/elections-midterms\/election-updates-dewine-is-out-with-an-attack-ad-in-the-ohio-governors-race?smid=url-share\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Georgia and Arizona<\/a>. But will these political ads inspire voters to vote for his candidates &#8211; or motivate them to vote for the Democrats?<\/li>\n<li>It occurs to me that candidate Herschel Walker (R) of <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/10\/08\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-33\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Georgia<\/a> is not only endorsed by the former President, but was <strong>personally recruited<\/strong> by the former President. Walker failing to beat Senator Warnock (D) would be a tremendous blow to the political prestige of the former President, and given how Walker&#8217;s reputation is in tatters, there&#8217;s a real chance that Walker will not only lose, but actually be routed, despite Trump&#8217;s late efforts. It&#8217;s up to Georgia voters to decide if Walker is up to the job of Senator.<\/li>\n<li>Speaking of <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/10\/08\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-33\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Georgia<\/a>, <strong><em>Emerson College<\/em><\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/emersoncollegepolling.com\/georgia-2022-sen-warnock-leads-walker-by-two-gov-kemp-leads-abrams-by-five\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">has<\/a> Senator Warnock (D) up by two points, 48% to 46%, over Herschel Walker (R). <strong>Notable, maybe<\/strong>: <em>Since the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/emersoncollegepolling.com\/georgia-2022-walker-holds-two-point-lead-over-warnock-in-tight-senate-race-kemp-leads-abrams-by-four\/\">August Emerson Georgia poll<\/a>, Warnock\u2019s support increased four points and Walker\u2019s support decreased by two points<\/em>. If Emerson is as accurate as their A- <a href=\"https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/pollster-ratings\/emerson-college\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">rating<\/a> suggests, then that&#8217;s significant, but as the gap is less than their margin of error of \u00b1 3 points, and even the best pollsters don&#8217;t always get it right, it sounds more like just noise in the signal.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/09\/23\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-27\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Alaska<\/a> Senator Murkowski (R) has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.country1st.com\/endorsed?utm_campaign=2022_gen_endorse&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=country1st\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">gained support<\/a> from a new super PAC named <em><strong>Country First<\/strong><\/em>, created by retiring Representative and member of the January 6th Committee Adam Kinzinger (R-IL). He did threaten to stay in politics, remember. But will word of this support play positively or negatively with the Alaska electorate? Beats me.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/09\/23\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-28\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Utah&#8217;s<\/a> Evan McMullin (I) has also gained <em><strong>Country First&#8217;s<\/strong><\/em> support; again, I don&#8217;t know if this is a positive or a negative for the candidate. And Utah has a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.deseret.com\/utah\/2022\/10\/10\/23396679\/evan-mcmullin-mike-lee-locked-utah-senate-race-poll-attack-ads\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">new poll<\/a>, again from <em><strong>Deseret News\/Hinckley Institute of Politics<\/strong><\/em>, but conducted by B <a href=\"https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/pollster-ratings\/dan-jones-associates\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">rated<\/a> pollster <em><strong>Dan Jones &amp; Associates<\/strong><\/em> (a detail which I&#8217;d missed before), showing challenger McMullin (I) losing ground as Senator Lee (R) leads 41% &#8211; 37% with a margin of error of \u00b1 3.46 points. <strong>Notable<\/strong>: It looks like 8% of those surveyed are looking at other candidates, and, <em>significantly<\/em>, 12% are undecided. That&#8217;s where McMullin&#8217;s gold is located, in that group of undecided. He doesn&#8217;t have to convince Lee voters to change their minds, which can be difficult. But it&#8217;s not good that McMullin lost two points of support relative to Lee. <strong>Also notable<\/strong>: <em>[The survey] found 97% of those surveyed say they are likely to vote, including 83% who say they will definitely vote<\/em>. &#8230; <em>According to the poll, Utahns who identified themselves as moderates represent the highest percentages of undecided voters<\/em>. While McMullin is heading in the wrong direction, he&#8217;s not lost yet, and there are still plenty of votes to scoop up, and voters who may be inclined his way. I suppose the question will be whether moderates think McMullin is acceptable, or if he&#8217;s too conservative for their taste.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/09\/14\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-24\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Iowa<\/a> finally has a new poll, but it&#8217;s bad news for challenger Admiral Mike Franken (D). <strong><em>Emerson College<\/em><\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/emersoncollegepolling.com\/iowa-2022-republican-candidates-grassley-and-reynolds-hold-double-digit-leads-in-us-senate-and-gubernatorial-elections\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">gives<\/a> Senator Grassley (R), full of mendacity and confusion, a 49% to 38% lead, with a margin of error of \u00b1 3.1%. Do I sound disappointed in my neighbors to the south? I&#8217;d like to give them more credit than this. But, <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/06\/11\/the-2022-senate-campaign-strong-fingernails\/#iowa\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">as I said<\/a>, I figured this race would get away from the Democrats.<\/li>\n<li>A <a href=\"https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/pollster-ratings\/marist-college\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">rated<\/a> <em><strong>Marist Poll<\/strong><\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/maristpoll.marist.edu\/polls\/the-2022-elections-in-colorado\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">gives<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/10\/08\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-33\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Colorado<\/a> Senator Bennet (D) a 48% to 41% lead over challenger Joe O&#8217;Dea (R). While this race is not out of reach, O&#8217;Dea must be aware of Bennet&#8217;s proximity to the magical number of 50%. These numbers are much like previous polls, suggesting O&#8217;Dea cannot find traction. It&#8217;s a pity, since he appears to be a moderate, and the failure of a moderate may be food for the extremists.<\/li>\n<li>If you&#8217;re interested in tactics, <em><strong>WaPo&#8217;s<\/strong><\/em> Jennifer Rubin <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/opinions\/2022\/10\/11\/ryan-vance-ohio-senate-debate\/\">thinks<\/a> Rep Ryan (D) just gave a master class in a debate with J. D. Vance. The <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/10\/07\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-32\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ohio<\/a> race may be the nation&#8217;s closest Senate race this cycle, although Wisconsin is giving it a run for its money.<\/li>\n<li>I just noticed <em><strong>FiveThirtyEight<\/strong><\/em> is <a href=\"https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/polls\/senate\/2022\/pennsylvania\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">recognizing<\/a> <em><strong>Center Street PAC<\/strong><\/em> as a partisan pollster for the Democratic Party &#8211; see the tool tips on the above link. Please discount their polls by <em>at least<\/em> several points.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Last time I <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/10\/08\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-33\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">did this<\/a>, something terrible happened. I forget what.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Godzilla wipes out Tokyo. Of course. The kaiju have to sign up in advance to do that. In other news: In a baffling move, incumbents up for reelection Lankford (R-OK), Rubio (R-FL), and Lee (R-UT) are sponsoring a Senate bill named Protect Drug Innovation Act, which is &#8220;To repeal prescription \u2026 <a class=\"continue-reading-link\" href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/10\/12\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-34\/\"> Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr; <\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-37534","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37534","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37534"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37534\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":37550,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37534\/revisions\/37550"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37534"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37534"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37534"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}