{"id":37442,"date":"2022-10-01T20:36:52","date_gmt":"2022-10-02T01:36:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/?p=37442"},"modified":"2022-10-01T20:36:52","modified_gmt":"2022-10-02T01:36:52","slug":"the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-30","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/10\/01\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-30\/","title":{"rendered":"The 2022 Senate Campaign: Updates"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>They should all take a ski trip, and the survivors can be declared winners. That&#8217;s sort of like the former President offering to take the lead on ending <em>Putin&#8217;s War<\/em>. In other news:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Former Maryland Lt. Governor and Republican Party Chairman <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Michael_Steele\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Michael Steele<\/a> (R) <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dailykos.com\/stories\/2022\/9\/29\/2126085\/-Fmr-GOP-Chair-Michael-Steele-Polls-are-wrong-There-will-be-a-pink-wave-Dems-to-hold-House?pm_source=story_sidebar&amp;pm_medium=web&amp;pm_campaign=recommended\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">believes there is a &#8220;pink wave&#8221; coming in November<\/a>, disregarded or undetected by pollsters. The <em>pink wave<\/em> are women who don&#8217;t usually vote, but will vote Democratic this cycle. Why disregarded? My guess, unsupported by experience or evidence, is that pollsters adjust raw data based on previously detected factors, and this wouldn&#8217;t be supported by previous occurrences. If Democrats do win big in November, then Steele gets credit for an insight I haven&#8217;t seen mentioned elsewhere.<\/li>\n<li>In perhaps an iconic mark of the incompetent, even childish, amateur at work, former President Trump broke Party discipline and has attacked fellow leader Senator McConnell (R) for his support of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2022\/09\/30\/politics\/house-government-funding-vote\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Continuing Resolution<\/a> that is keeping the government up and running during these days of hurricane (Ian) and war (Putin&#8217;s War), <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2022\/10\/01\/politics\/trump-mcconnell-death-wish-democrat-bills\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">according<\/a> to <strong><em>CNN\/Politics<\/em><\/strong>:<br \/>\n<blockquote><p>Former President<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/specials\/politics\/president-donald-trump-45\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u00a0Donald Trump<\/a>\u00a0on Friday night directly ridiculed Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, saying on his social media platform that the Kentucky Republican had a \u201cdeath wish\u201d for supporting \u201cDemocrat sponsored bills.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"paragraph inline-placeholder\" data-uri=\"archive.cms.cnn.com\/_components\/paragraph\/instances\/paragraph_7E1C237F-E7AA-4F33-44CF-919943716D68@published\" data-editable=\"text\" data-component-name=\"paragraph\">Trump, in his Truth Social post, also mocked McConnell\u2019s wife, Elaine Chao \u2013 who was born in Taiwan and served as Trump\u2019s secretary of transportation \u2013 referring to her as McConnell\u2019s \u201cChina loving wife, Coco Chow!\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>So is this the sort of thing that&#8217;ll break the Republicans in half? While Trump&#8217;s <strong>MAGA<\/strong> voters may try to take him seriously, the fact of the matter is that many candidates McConnell has endorsed and even helping with his <strong><em>Senate Leadership Fund<\/em><\/strong> (<em><strong>SLF<\/strong><\/em>) are also endorsed by Trump, and those few that might not fall into that category, such as Senator Murkowski in Alaska, are already well known to the <strong>MAGA<\/strong> voters.<\/p>\n<p>And do the <strong>MAGA<\/strong> voters matter? Popular report has it that the <strong>MAGA<\/strong> rallies are ill-attended these days. It may be that the former President is coasting on past glories these days, despite the number of endorsed extremists of which he can boast.<\/p>\n<p>In the end, I suspect Trump&#8217;s temper tantrum, best interpreted as the wailing of someone who thinks they have fabulous political insight, but doesn&#8217;t, is little more than inadvertent entertainment for everyone who is not a Republican.<\/li>\n<li>A rated <em><strong>Fox News Poll<\/strong><\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/static.foxnews.com\/foxnews.com\/content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/AZ-topline_Sen-Gov-General_conducted-September-22-26_released-Sep-29-2022.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">reports<\/a> Senator Kelly (D) leading Blake Masters 46% &#8211; 40% in <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/09\/29\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-29\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Arizona<\/a>. Their August poll gave Kelly an 8 point lead, but both lost ground in this poll. There is a \u00b13 point margin of error.<\/li>\n<li><strong><em>Fox News Poll<\/em><\/strong> also <a href=\"https:\/\/static.foxnews.com\/foxnews.com\/content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/WI-topline_Sen-Gov-General_conducted-September-22-26_released-Sep-29-2022.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">reports<\/a> that Senator Johnson (R) is now leading Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes (D) 48% &#8211; 44% in <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/09\/29\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-29\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Wisconsin<\/a>. Given the conspiracy rumors in which Johnson indulges, it&#8217;s a real disappointment.<\/li>\n<li>A poll from <em><strong>Franklin &amp; Marshall College Poll<\/strong><\/em>, B\/C <a href=\"https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/pollster-ratings\/franklin-marshall-college\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">rated<\/a> by <em><strong>FiveThirtyEight<\/strong><\/em>, <a href=\"https:\/\/drive.google.com\/file\/d\/1LjMQTRxDxoEf9L18oVKfn6YH1lfquZSV\/view\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">gives<\/a> Lt. Governor Fetterman (D) a 45% to 42% lead over Dr. Oz Mehmet (R) in <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/09\/29\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-29\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Pennsylvania<\/a>. This seems abnormally small, especially in view of <em><strong>Marist Poll<\/strong><\/em> just giving Fetterman a ten point lead. No margin of error is given.<\/li>\n<li>Candidate Don Bolduc (R) of <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/09\/29\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-29\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">New Hampshire<\/a> is a flip-flopper. First, he thought there was electoral fraud in 2020. Then, soon as he became the <strong><em>GOP<\/em><\/strong> nominee for the New Hampshire Senate seat, he said research showed that&#8217;s not true, that the election had no systemic fraud. Now? <a href=\"https:\/\/www.msn.com\/en-us\/news\/politics\/surprise-election-denying-senate-nominee-e2-80-99s-miraculous-reversal-was-all-an-act\/ar-AA12jUMm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Back on the election denial wagon, apparently<\/a>. Frankly, he seems a bit frenzied to sit in the Senate. It was intended for sober legislators, not this guy.<\/li>\n<li>Challenger Madison Horn (D) <a href=\"https:\/\/finance.dailyherald.com\/dailyherald\/article\/newswire-2022-9-29-madison-horn-responds-to-the-endorsement-given-by-former-president-trump-to-james-lankford\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">remarks on former President Trump&#8217;s endorsement<\/a> of candidate James Lankford (R) for reelection in Oklahoma.<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>GOP<\/strong><\/em>-leaning pollster <em><strong>Trafalgar&#8217;s<\/strong><\/em> latest poll in <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/09\/23\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-28\/\">Colorado<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thetrafalgargroup.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/TRF-CO-General-0927-Poll-Report.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">suggests<\/a> Senator Bennet&#8217;s (D) lead over challenger Joe O&#8217;Dea (R) is shrinking, 48.6% to 42.6%. If accurate, then O&#8217;Dea no longer has the mountain of changing people&#8217;s minds to climb, just the mountain of undecided independent voters to climb.<\/li>\n<li>Senator Schumer (D) of <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/08\/04\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-13\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">New York<\/a> has a 55% &#8211; 36% lead over challenger Joe Pinion (R) <a href=\"https:\/\/scri.siena.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/SNY-September-2022-Poll-Release-9-28-22-FINAL.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">according<\/a> to A <a href=\"https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/pollster-ratings\/siena-college\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">rated<\/a> <em><strong>Siena College<\/strong><\/em>. Two months ago Schumer held a 22 point lead, according to <em><strong>Emerson College<\/strong><\/em>, but if this decay in Schumer&#8217;s lead continues, the rate of change is not enough for Pinion to pull the upset.<\/li>\n<li>Unknown to <em><strong>FiveThirtyEight<\/strong><\/em>, but <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/08\/24\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-19\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">reportedly conservative<\/a>, pollster <em><strong>Civitas<\/strong><\/em> has <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/09\/23\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-28\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">North Carolina<\/a> as a statistical tie, with Cheri Beasley (D), the former State Supreme Court Justice, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.johnlocke.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/20148-JLF-NC-Toplines.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">leading<\/a> Rep Ted Budd (R) 44.0% &#8211; 43.7%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The last time I did this is <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/09\/29\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-29\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>They should all take a ski trip, and the survivors can be declared winners. That&#8217;s sort of like the former President offering to take the lead on ending Putin&#8217;s War. In other news: Former Maryland Lt. Governor and Republican Party Chairman Michael Steele (R) believes there is a &#8220;pink wave&#8221; \u2026 <a class=\"continue-reading-link\" href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/10\/01\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-30\/\"> Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr; <\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-37442","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37442","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37442"}],"version-history":[{"count":12,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37442\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":37466,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37442\/revisions\/37466"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37442"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37442"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37442"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}