{"id":37383,"date":"2022-09-23T22:35:13","date_gmt":"2022-09-24T03:35:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/?p=37383"},"modified":"2022-09-23T22:35:13","modified_gmt":"2022-09-24T03:35:13","slug":"the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-28","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/09\/23\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-28\/","title":{"rendered":"The 2022 Senate Campaign: Updates"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Our latest plate of news, steaming and really overflowing, stop being generous Mom:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>In <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/09\/05\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-22\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Colorado<\/a>, at least through the lens of <strong><em>DuckDuckGo<\/em><\/strong>, it appears the media keeps trying to make the contest between incumbent Senator Michael Bennet and challenger John O&#8217;Dea look exciting, and the public is having none of it. <em><strong>Emerson College Polling<\/strong><\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/emersoncollegepolling.com\/colorado-2022-democratic-senator-bennet-and-governor-polis-hold-double-digit-leads-in-re-election-campaigns\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">gives<\/a> Bennet a 46% &#8211; 36% lead, not far different from the last poll results of an 11 point lead. However, this is notable: <em>&#8230; a plurality (39%) of Independent voters either have no opinion or have not heard of O\u2019Dea, leaving room for Republican growth with this cohort<\/em>. O&#8217;Dea will have to work hard and hope for a dab of luck, but at least he doesn&#8217;t have to peel voters away from Bennet. Bennet needs to connect with voters. I&#8217;ve mentioned this in earlier thoughts on O&#8217;Dea, but I think it&#8217;s both unfortunate and inevitable that a candidate as apparently moderate as O&#8217;Dea ends up in a competitive, or even Democratic state. In a safe Republican state the extremists swarm.<\/li>\n<li>A-\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/pollster-ratings\/quinnipiac-university\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">rated<\/a>\u00a0<strong><em>Quinnipiac University Poll\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>agrees with <strong><em>Emerson College Polling<\/em><\/strong>. Incumbent <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/09\/15\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-25\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Connecticut<\/a> Senator Blumenthal (D) <a href=\"https:\/\/poll.qu.edu\/images\/polling\/ct\/ct09212022_cujw27.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">has an overwhelming<\/a> 17 point lead over challenger Leora Levy (R), 57% &#8211; 40%. That is a very big hill to climb in six weeks. Don&#8217;t look for the Republicans to pick up a seat here.<\/li>\n<li>B+ <a href=\"https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/pollster-ratings\/muhlenberg-college\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">rated<\/a> <em><strong>Muhlenberg College&#8217;s<\/strong> <strong>Institute of Public Opinion<\/strong><\/em> is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mcall.com\/news\/elections\/mc-nws-pa-muhlenberg-poll-senate-governor-september-2022-20220922-n2hvqzd7n5cepa4iqxfkoqgzii-story.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">weighing in<\/a> on the <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/09\/23\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-27\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Pennsylvania<\/a> Senate race, awarding Lt. Governor Fetterman (D) a 49% &#8211; 44% lead over Dr. Mehmet Oz (R). This is a smaller gap than most polls, but it&#8217;s worth noting that this poll has a margin of error of 6 points, which is rather high. I mean, Oz could actually be ahead, or Fetterman could have a huge lead of 11 points. They needed to do more interviews.<\/li>\n<li>In <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/08\/24\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-19\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kansas<\/a> <em><strong>Emerson College Polling<\/strong><\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/emersoncollegepolling.com\/kansas-2022-democratic-governor-laura-kelly-in-tight-race-with-a-g-derek-schmidt-in-gubernatorial-election\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">says<\/a> incumbent Senator Moran (R) leads Pastor Holland (D) 45% to 33%, suggesting Moran&#8217;s extremist stance when it comes to abortion is not a terminal condition, despite the rejection of an anti-abortion Constitutional amendment by Kansas voters earlier this year.\n<p><strong>Or could it be?<\/p>\n<p><\/strong>A walk down memory lane tells us that Moran won his seat in 2016 by a <a href=\"https:\/\/ballotpedia.org\/Jerry_Moran\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">full 30 points<\/a>. Assuming <em><strong>Emerson<\/strong><\/em> got this poll right, that implies Moran has lost 18 points worth of support, and Emerson advertises a &#8220;Credibility Interval&#8221;, similar to margin of error, of \u00b13 points. Yes, Holland is potentially 9 to 15 points down, and, on the low end, that&#8217;s significant. Then note that Moran is not yet over 50%, the critical point at which the #2 contender has to start persuading voters to change their minds, rather than just persuade the undecided to pick the #2. 18% are undecided, enough to take Holland over the top.And there&#8217;s two more Kansas factors to consider, with information also from <em><strong>Emerson&#8217;s<\/strong><\/em> poll. First, Governor Kelly (D) is leading in her reelection effort by four points. In Republican Kansas, this is a huge margin for her to hold. Can her example of a competent Democratic help Holland? Second, Governor Kelly&#8217;s opponent from four years ago, extremist Kris Kobach, is running for his old position of AG. Yes, he leads the race against his Democratic opponent &#8211; but it&#8217;s only a two point lead! Could Kobach drag down Moran? It seems unlikely, but stranger things have happened in American politics.<\/p>\n<p>All that said, I&#8217;d be shocked if Moran lost. But Holland, if he&#8217;s an adept campaigner and doesn&#8217;t hesitate to use Moran&#8217;s liabilities against him, has a chance to turn this around. It&#8217;s slender, but it&#8217;s there. Let Moran stick his foot in his mouth, and this race could be the sleeper of the season.<\/li>\n<li>The <em><strong>Granite State Poll<\/strong><\/em> in <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/09\/19\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-26\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">New Hampshire<\/a> gives incumbent Senator Hassan (D) a<a href=\"https:\/\/scholars.unh.edu\/cgi\/viewcontent.cgi?article=1707&amp;context=survey_center_polls\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> 49% &#8211; 41% lead<\/a> over challenger retired Brigadier General Bolduc. Notable comment: <em>Bolduc garners the support of just under half of Independents (45%), while 30% support Hassan and 21% support [Libertarian] Kauffman<\/em>. I think Hassan should strive to attract more Independent support, otherwise it&#8217;s a weak spot. Although how Independents can vote for a guy, by whom I mean Bolduc, who thinks voters shouldn&#8217;t elect Senators is baffling. This pollster is unknown to <em><strong>FiveThirtyEight<\/strong><\/em>.<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>CBS News\/YouGov<\/strong><\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/georgia-senate-race-brian-kemp-stacey-abrams-raphael-warnock-herschel-walker-opinion-poll-2022-09-20\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">gives<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/09\/23\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-27\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Georgia<\/a> Senator Warnock (D) a 51% &#8211; 49% lead over challenger Herschel Walker (R). <strong><em>YouGov<\/em><\/strong> is a B+ rated pollster. A basic tenet of my position on the Republican Party is reinforced by this commentary: <em>Walker&#8217;s supporters say they aren&#8217;t voting for him mainly because they like Walker; instead most say they are voting for him either to oppose Warnock or <strong>because Walker is the Republican Party&#8217;s nominee<\/strong>.<\/em> Bold mine. Never mind that Walker&#8217;s mendacious and incoherent and we can&#8217;t even get to questions about his competency for the position of Senator because the muck is so deep. <em>He was nominated and that&#8217;s it for the thinking part of the program<\/em>. Toxic team politics. It&#8217;s crap like this that makes me think the United States is doomed.<\/li>\n<li>Conservative pollster <strong><em>Trafalgar<\/em><\/strong> has challenger Adam Laxalt (R) <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thetrafalgargroup.org\/news\/nv-sen-0922\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">leading<\/a> incumbent Senator Cortez Masto (D) 47% &#8211; 43% in <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/09\/15\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-25\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Nevada<\/a>. <em><strong>Trafalgar<\/strong><\/em> has seemed to be leaning more conservative than most pollsters. Do they know something the other pollsters don&#8217;t?<\/li>\n<li>B- <a href=\"https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/pollster-ratings\/civiqs\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">rated<\/a> <em><strong>Civiqs<\/strong><\/em> gives <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/09\/23\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-27\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">North Carolina&#8217;s<\/a> Cheri Beasley (D) a 49% &#8211; 48% <a href=\"https:\/\/civiqs.com\/documents\/Civiqs_NC_banner_book_2022_09_6n77vb.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">lead<\/a> over Rep Ted Budd (R) in the race for an open Senate seat. This race is a real sizzler at the moment. Can the former President sink Rep Budd through some political misstep over the next few weeks?<\/li>\n<li>If Senator Moran doesn&#8217;t lose (see above), perhaps the sleeper race of the year will be that of Senator Mike Lee (R) of <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/07\/25\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-10\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Utah<\/a>, as his lead over Evan McMullin (I) has shrunk to two points, 36% &#8211; 34%, with 16% undecided and the balance looking at other options. This poll is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.deseret.com\/utah\/2022\/9\/22\/23351744\/mike-lee-evan-mcmullin-poll-results-senate-election-utah\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">from<\/a> <strong><em>Deseret News\/Hinckley Institute of Politics<\/em><\/strong>, unknown to <em><strong>FiveThirtyEight<\/strong><\/em>, and claims a margin of error of \u00b13.43 points. Their previous poll of late July gave Lee a five point lead, so McMullin appears to be making progress. Can he close the gap? Utah Republicans must be sweating this one out, knowing that Lee is a close ally of the former President, and Trump is looking worse and worse every day.<\/li>\n<li><em><strong>Crosscut.Elway<\/strong><\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/crosscut.com\/sites\/default\/files\/files\/crosscut-elway-poll-september-2022_0.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">gives<\/a> Senator Murray (D) of <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/09\/19\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-26\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Washington<\/a> a 50% &#8211; 37% over challenger Tiffany Smiley (R), one of the more moderate Republican Senate candidates this year. There&#8217;s a \u00b15% margin of error.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The previous soup bowl of news is <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/09\/23\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-27\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Our latest plate of news, steaming and really overflowing, stop being generous Mom: In Colorado, at least through the lens of DuckDuckGo, it appears the media keeps trying to make the contest between incumbent Senator Michael Bennet and challenger John O&#8217;Dea look exciting, and the public is having none of \u2026 <a class=\"continue-reading-link\" href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/09\/23\/the-2022-senate-campaign-updates-28\/\"> Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr; <\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-37383","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37383","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37383"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37383\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":37398,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37383\/revisions\/37398"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37383"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37383"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37383"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}