{"id":36842,"date":"2022-08-02T19:41:58","date_gmt":"2022-08-03T00:41:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/?p=36842"},"modified":"2022-08-02T19:41:58","modified_gmt":"2022-08-03T00:41:58","slug":"clipping-the-non-functional-head","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2022\/08\/02\/clipping-the-non-functional-head\/","title":{"rendered":"Clipping The Non-Functional Head"},"content":{"rendered":"

Daniel Byman notes that the assassination<\/a> of Ayman al-Zawahiri by American remote controlled forces may have have a net operational negative effect<\/a>:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>Yet, al-Zawahiri\u2019s death may actually be good news for al-Qaeda, or, short of a boon to the organization, will likely have little impact given the group\u2019s many existing problems. Al-Zawahiri, in contrast to Bin Laden, was pedantic and had little charisma. Under his watch, the core group had not conducted any spectacular<\/em> terrorist attacks on the United States and Europe for many years despite a continued rhetorical focus on the United States and Europe. Affiliates tied to the organization, such as al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), did inspire and perhaps orchestrate attacks, such as the military trainee from Saudi Arabia who killed three American sailors<\/a> at a U.S. naval base in Florida in December 2019, but the core organization has not done a successful attack on the United States or Europe since the 2005 bombings in London. This may reflect operational weakness or simply a more pragmatic shift toward areas where its affiliates are most focused, but either way it is good news for the United States. [Lawfare<\/strong>]<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Which rather makes this look like instructional vengeance. And I’ve been wondering if we’ll be seeing a counterstrike on American forces or politicians. But:<\/p>\n

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Any new leader might seek to take revenge for Zawahiri and has a strong short-term incentive to support high-profile terrorist attacks on the West as a way of gaining attention, attracting money, inspiring recruits, and proving the new leader\u2019s credentials. Fortunately, as the al-Zawahiri strike shows, the United States maintains an impressive counterterrorism apparatus, working closely with allied intelligence services<\/a> around the world as well as striking deep into terrorist havens. Al-Zawahiri, after all, is only the latest of many al-Qaeda and ISIS leaders killed or captured in hideouts in Pakistan,<\/a> Syria,<\/a> Yemen<\/a>, and elsewhere. Al-Qaeda\u2019s aspirations remain grand and revolutionary, but its capacity is weak, and the organization risks being marginalized if the new leader cannot energize it.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Which is reassuring. However, the American strike legitimizes violence in the minds of many, especially those sympathetic to the al-Qaeda cause. Whether this was a wise decision in the long-term remains to be seen, of course, even while we acknowledge that Zawahiri was certainly a deadly enemy of the United States.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Daniel Byman notes that the assassination of Ayman al-Zawahiri by American remote controlled forces may have have a net operational negative effect: Yet, al-Zawahiri\u2019s death may actually be good news for al-Qaeda, or, short of a boon to the organization, will likely have little impact given the group\u2019s many existing \u2026 Continue reading → <\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-36842","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36842","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=36842"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36842\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":36845,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36842\/revisions\/36845"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=36842"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=36842"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=36842"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}