{"id":29300,"date":"2020-07-02T07:06:12","date_gmt":"2020-07-02T12:06:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/?p=29300"},"modified":"2020-07-02T07:06:12","modified_gmt":"2020-07-02T12:06:12","slug":"in-kentucky","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2020\/07\/02\/in-kentucky\/","title":{"rendered":"In Kentucky"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Last week Kentucky held its primaries plus a special election for a seat in the state&#8217;s Senate. For those who like to prognosticate from data, even flimsy data such as small local special elections, this data from the home of Senator Mitch &#8220;Moscow&#8221; McConnell (R-KY) might prove interesting, as the Democrat wins over the\u00a0 Republican. More importantly, this had been a Republican seat:<\/p>\n<p><iframe id=\"datawrapper-chart-7YkA3\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" title=\"Kentucky State Senate Seat District 26\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/7YkA3\/1\/\" height=\"396\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" aria-label=\"Grouped Bars\"><\/iframe><script type=\"text\/javascript\">!function(){\"use strict\";window.addEventListener(\"message\",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var e in a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var t=document.getElementById(\"datawrapper-chart-\"+e)||document.querySelector(\"iframe[src*='\"+e+\"']\");t&&(t.style.height=a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][e]+\"px\")}}))}();\n<\/script><\/p>\n<p>Steve Benen <a href=\"https:\/\/www.msnbc.com\/rachel-maddow-show\/wednesday-s-campaign-round-7-1-20-n1232678\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">helpfully notes<\/a> President Trump carried this district by 12 points in 2016.<\/p>\n<p>That said, using small local elections as goat guts, as it were, is a chancy business. Perhaps Ferko was personally disliked by the District 26 voters, perhaps a scandal erupted: putting too much emphasis on a result like this can result in disappointment.<\/p>\n<p>But Senator McConnell must find the loss of a local seat that may have been considered safe surprising. His own opponent in his reelection run was confirmed in the primary to be Amy McGrath, who bested her closest opponent, <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2020\/06\/17\/the-2020-senate-campaign-kentucky\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">State Senator Charles Booker<\/a>, by less than 3 points, and Democratic propaganda making its way to my mailbox suggests McConnell is currently behind in their polls. Whether Booker&#8217;s loss to McGrath hurts McGrath with Booker supporters remains to be seen.<\/p>\n<p>I don&#8217;t put a whole lot of stock in the outcome of the local contest, but it may be indicative of an imminent earthquake in Kentucky.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Last week Kentucky held its primaries plus a special election for a seat in the state&#8217;s Senate. For those who like to prognosticate from data, even flimsy data such as small local special elections, this data from the home of Senator Mitch &#8220;Moscow&#8221; McConnell (R-KY) might prove interesting, as the \u2026 <a class=\"continue-reading-link\" href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2020\/07\/02\/in-kentucky\/\"> Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr; <\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29300","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29300","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29300"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29300\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":29302,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29300\/revisions\/29302"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29300"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29300"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29300"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}