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<\/a>St. Louis vs. Philadelphia death rates in 1918 flu epidemic<\/p><\/div>\n
What was the difference?\u00a0 It was how each city responded to the first cases of influenza showing up in their cities.\u00a0 The difference makes a good case showing that social distancing does work.\u00a0 In Philadelphia, the first case was reported on September 17 and authorities downplayed the significance of the case.\u00a0 They even allowed a city-wide parade to happen on September 28.\u00a0 School closures and bans on public gatherings did not happen until October 3, sixteen<\/em> days since the first case. Meanwhile, St. Louis had its first case on October 5 and the city implemented social distancing measures two<\/em> days later.<\/p>\n Protective measures, such as self-isolation and canceling large gatherings, will delay and decrease the outbreak peak, reduce the burden on hospitals at a given time, and decrease the overall number of cases.<\/p>\n Without efforts to slow the spread, COVID-19 will likely infect a lot more people than can be handled in the short term by hospitals.\u00a0 But if we slow the spread, and there are fewer people in need of care at the same time, there would be fewer medical shortages.<\/p>\n A study conducted last month from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention provides statistics about the lethality of COVID-19.\u00a0 Those statistics were analyzed by Business Insider<\/a>. For 55-year olds who contract COVID-19, between one and two of 100 will die<\/em> of the disease. That\u2019s twenty-two<\/em> times the mortality rate of the flu.\u00a0 However, the real jump occurs in those who are 60 and above. Almost 15% (1 in 7) of those aged 80+ will die if they contract the coronavirus.<\/p>\n There is yet no vaccine against COVID-19. There is no cure. The only way for a 60+ year old to avoid a 3.6% \u2013 14.8% chance of dying is to avoid<\/em> the disease. The real odds of dying are the infection rate multiplied by the mortality rate. But once you contract the disease, you are far more likely to die than if you contracted the flu.<\/p>\n Is there any activity on Earth that a rational person would undertake with a 3.6% \u2013 14.8% chance of dying?\u00a0 For comparison purposes, an American sent to fight in Vietnam had about a 0.5% chance of dying<\/a>.<\/p>\n Given those odds, is it really hysteria to cancel fan participation at sporting events, close schools and implement other containment measures?\u00a0 Our only defense is distance and containment and those come with a fair amount of inconvenience. What is the alternative? Hope is not a strategy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Are American government institutions, businesses, schools and private organizations doing enough \u2013 soon enough \u2013 to protect American citizens from coronavirus?\u00a0 Are the measures currently taken adequate to prevent a nationwide medical care disaster and large numbers of resulting deaths?\u00a0 Quite probably not, and hence this posting. First, a contrasting \u2026 Continue reading <\/a><\/p>\n<\/a>You can see those statistics in the graph above. Younger people have a one in 10,000 (0.01%) chance of dying from the flu and a one in 500 (0.2%) chance of dying from COVID-19. So, COVID-19 is twenty<\/em> times more lethal for a 15-year old than the flu. That mortality rate rises quickly as the victims get older.<\/p>\n