{"id":27021,"date":"2019-12-17T16:33:11","date_gmt":"2019-12-17T22:33:11","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/?p=27021"},"modified":"2019-12-17T16:33:11","modified_gmt":"2019-12-17T22:33:11","slug":"that-doesnt-seem-likely","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2019\/12\/17\/that-doesnt-seem-likely\/","title":{"rendered":"That Doesn&#8217;t Seem Likely"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The latest <a href=\"https:\/\/www.usatoday.com\/story\/news\/politics\/elections\/2019\/12\/16\/trump-impeachment-2020-election-leads-democratic-rivals\/2663659001\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><strong><em>USA Today \/ Suffolk University Poll<\/em><\/strong><\/a> shows Trump winning in 2020:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>President Donald Trump, the first modern president to face impeachment during his first term in the White House, now leads his top Democratic rivals in his bid for a second, a new USA TODAY\/Suffolk University Poll finds.<\/p>\n<p>The national survey, taken as the House of Representatives planned an impeachment vote and the Senate a trial, showed Trump defeating former Vice President Joe Biden by 3 percentage points, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders by 5 points, and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren by 8 points.<\/p>\n<p>In hypothetical head-to-head contests, Trump also led South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg by 10 points and former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg by 9.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Seems unlikely? Sure is.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>An unnamed third-party candidate received between 11% and 15% in the head-to-head contests \u2013 a factor that could determine who wins the White House.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;We know third-party candidates have minimal chance to win a presidential election but a high probability to make a difference in a state&#8217;s outcome,&#8221; said David Paleologos, director of Suffolk&#8217;s Political Research Center. &#8220;Every ballot has third-party candidates who receive critical votes. When you give voters more than two options for president, you see how it impacts the major two parties.&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>How often do we see that sort of support for third party candidates, even in the aggregate?<\/p>\n<p><iframe id=\"datawrapper-chart-qD2p3\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" title=\"Presidential Popular Votes By Percentage &amp; Party\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/qD2p3\/1\/\" height=\"400\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\"><\/iframe><script type=\"text\/javascript\">!function(){\"use strict\";window.addEventListener(\"message\",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var e in a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var t=document.getElementById(\"datawrapper-chart-\"+e)||document.querySelector(\"iframe[src*='\"+e+\"']\");t&&(t.style.height=a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][e]+\"px\")}})}();<\/script><\/p>\n<p>In 1992, nearly 20% of the vote went to third party candidates, principally corporate magnate H. Ross Perot. It&#8217;s conceivable that this helped defeat fellow corporate magnate George H. W. Bush. In 1968, George Wallace polled in excess of 13% of the total turnout. After those two, though, pickings get slim. Those 11-15% that the poll is claiming are looking at third party candidates? Unless a person with some notoriety to their name jumps into the race, I doubt we&#8217;re going to see much of in terms of third party support, and I suspect that those who are thinking about it won&#8217;t turn to Trump. Unless you&#8217;re a cultist or a Republican who&#8217;s not paying attention &#8211; and there&#8217;s plenty of people who have a nominal political loyalty but don&#8217;t want to pay attention to actual politics &#8211; you&#8217;re probably looking at Trump and finding his behavior to be disturbing. I would expect most of these alleged &#8220;third party supporters&#8221; to break towards the Democrat.<\/p>\n<p>Now, if we were using ranked choice voting (RCV) rather than single choice voting, then I&#8217;d expect a relatively big turnout for the third party candidates &#8211; and then probably a victory for the Democrat as RCV eliminated the failed third party candidates.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The latest USA Today \/ Suffolk University Poll shows Trump winning in 2020: President Donald Trump, the first modern president to face impeachment during his first term in the White House, now leads his top Democratic rivals in his bid for a second, a new USA TODAY\/Suffolk University Poll finds. \u2026 <a class=\"continue-reading-link\" href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2019\/12\/17\/that-doesnt-seem-likely\/\"> Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr; <\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-27021","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27021","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=27021"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27021\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":27022,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27021\/revisions\/27022"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=27021"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=27021"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=27021"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}