{"id":26488,"date":"2019-10-26T15:48:27","date_gmt":"2019-10-26T20:48:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/?p=26488"},"modified":"2019-10-26T15:48:27","modified_gmt":"2019-10-26T20:48:27","slug":"palpable-prophetic-failure-on-the-right","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2019\/10\/26\/palpable-prophetic-failure-on-the-right\/","title":{"rendered":"Palpable Prophetic Failure On The Right"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>A venting, nothing to see here:<\/em><\/p>\n<p>For evidence of the ongoing failure of <em><strong>GOP<\/strong><\/em> predictions and the <a href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2019\/06\/19\/becoming-a-religious-tenet-does-not-require-success\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><em>Laffer Curve<\/em><\/a>, it&#8217;s harder to get more graphic than Steve Benen&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.msnbc.com\/rachel-maddow-show\/despite-trumps-promises-deficit-soars-2019\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">graph of budget deficits<\/a>:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/benen-yearly-deficits.jpg?ssl=1\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-26489\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/benen-yearly-deficits.jpg?resize=727%2C420&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" width=\"727\" height=\"420\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/benen-yearly-deficits.jpg?w=727&amp;ssl=1 727w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/benen-yearly-deficits.jpg?resize=300%2C173&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/benen-yearly-deficits.jpg?resize=250%2C144&amp;ssl=1 250w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/benen-yearly-deficits.jpg?resize=150%2C87&amp;ssl=1 150w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 727px) 100vw, 727px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Yep, the 2019 Federal Budget Deficit grew again, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/business\/2019\/10\/25\/us-deficit-hit-billion-marking-nearly-percent-increase-during-trump-era\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">by 26%<\/a>, in grievous defiance of <em><strong>GOP<\/strong><\/em> <del>orders<\/del> predictions that it shrink because they cut taxes.<\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s also worth savoring those Golden Clinton Years when the budget was in the black and the economy was roaring, before the spendthrift Republicans<a href=\"#1\"><sup>[1]<\/sup><\/a> took over in 2001 and forced it back into the red, followed by the Great Recession, caused by Republican deregulation.<\/p>\n<p>Now, as we near a chronic and, so far, <em>unforced<\/em><a href=\"#2\"><sup>[2]<\/sup><\/a> annual deficit of $1 trillion, we&#8217;ll be either exploring the new territory of how monstrous deficits and possible looming government defaults on the loans financing the deficit play out.<\/p>\n<p>But what about inflation? Here&#8217;s a chart which should remove the influence of inflation, I think:<\/p>\n<p><iframe id=\"datawrapper-chart-he01X\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" title=\"US Annual Budget Deficit as Percentage of GDP\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/he01X\/2\/\" height=\"500\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" aria-label=\"Column Chart\"><\/iframe><script type=\"text\/javascript\">!function(){\"use strict\";window.addEventListener(\"message\",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var e in a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var t=document.getElementById(\"datawrapper-chart-\"+e)||document.querySelector(\"iframe[src*='\"+e+\"']\");t&&(t.style.height=a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][e]+\"px\")}})}();<\/script><\/p>\n<p>As we can see, the deficit as a percentage of GDP jumps under the Trump Administration. Interestingly, though, is this:<\/p>\n<p><iframe id=\"datawrapper-chart-2hLox\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" title=\"US Annual Federal Budget as Percentage of GDP\" src=\"\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/2hLox\/1\/\" height=\"400\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" aria-label=\"Interactive line chart\"><\/iframe><script type=\"text\/javascript\">!function(){\"use strict\";window.addEventListener(\"message\",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var e in a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var t=document.getElementById(\"datawrapper-chart-\"+e)||document.querySelector(\"iframe[src*='\"+e+\"']\");t&&(t.style.height=a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][e]+\"px\")}})}();<\/script><\/p>\n<p>The drop in percentage would appear, to this non-economist, to be a combination of the growth in GDP and a some change in the Federal budget. <em><strong>Trading Economics<\/strong><\/em> has a <a href=\"https:\/\/tradingeconomics.com\/united-states\/gdp-growth\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">handy chart<\/a> on GDP growth, which is no where near it needs to be for the Laffer Curve to work:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/united-states-gdp-growth.jpg?ssl=1\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-26490\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/united-states-gdp-growth.jpg?resize=730%2C340&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" width=\"730\" height=\"340\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/united-states-gdp-growth.jpg?w=730&amp;ssl=1 730w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/united-states-gdp-growth.jpg?resize=300%2C140&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/united-states-gdp-growth.jpg?resize=250%2C116&amp;ssl=1 250w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/united-states-gdp-growth.jpg?resize=150%2C70&amp;ssl=1 150w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 730px) 100vw, 730px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>It would probably need to be closer to 6% or even better for the deficits to shrink, rather than rapidly expanding. The Federal Budget isn&#8217;t shrinking either, as the <em><strong>St. Louis Fed<\/strong><\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/M318191A027NBEA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">makes clear<\/a>:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/BudgetOutlaysFromFRED.jpg?ssl=1\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-26491\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/BudgetOutlaysFromFRED.jpg?resize=800%2C400&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"400\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/BudgetOutlaysFromFRED.jpg?w=1301&amp;ssl=1 1301w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/BudgetOutlaysFromFRED.jpg?resize=300%2C150&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/BudgetOutlaysFromFRED.jpg?resize=768%2C384&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/BudgetOutlaysFromFRED.jpg?resize=1024%2C512&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/BudgetOutlaysFromFRED.jpg?resize=250%2C125&amp;ssl=1 250w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/BudgetOutlaysFromFRED.jpg?resize=150%2C75&amp;ssl=1 150w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The above lacks the 2019 data; <em><strong>Wikipedia<\/strong><\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/2019_United_States_federal_budget\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">suggests<\/a> it will come in at $4.407 trillion, while the 2018 data show at $4.1 trillion.<\/p>\n<p>So why the deficits? The failed 2017 tax reform. <a href=\"https:\/\/tradingeconomics.com\/united-states\/corporate-tax-rate\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">From<\/a> <em><strong>Trading Economics<\/strong><\/em> comes this rather brutal chart:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/united-states-corporate-tax-rate.jpg?ssl=1\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-26492\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/united-states-corporate-tax-rate.jpg?resize=730%2C340&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" width=\"730\" height=\"340\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/united-states-corporate-tax-rate.jpg?w=730&amp;ssl=1 730w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/united-states-corporate-tax-rate.jpg?resize=300%2C140&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/united-states-corporate-tax-rate.jpg?resize=250%2C116&amp;ssl=1 250w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/united-states-corporate-tax-rate.jpg?resize=150%2C70&amp;ssl=1 150w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 730px) 100vw, 730px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Once we let go of the fairy tale that the Laffer Curve will always kick in and save your ass, the twin events of the 2017 tax bill becoming law and the elevation of the annual Federal deficit comes as no surprise. Anyone who has struggled with a budget will understsand it. And with the Republicans in control during the critical period, all responsibility is dumped on them.<\/p>\n<p>Party of financial responsibility, indeed.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><a name=\"1\"><\/a><sup>1<\/sup> I should start a petition on <strong><em>change.org<\/em><\/strong> advocating the Republican Party change its name to the <strong>Spendthrift Republican Party<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p><a name=\"2\"><\/a>2 Certainly, Bush and Obama ran larger deficits for a couple of years, but it&#8217;s worth noting they were fighting the Great Recession using the time honored tool of pumping money into the economy. Trump was handed a great economy and pumped up the deficit for no good reason. To ignore these facts is to mark yourself an idiot. Yeah, I&#8217;m crabby today.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A venting, nothing to see here: For evidence of the ongoing failure of GOP predictions and the Laffer Curve, it&#8217;s harder to get more graphic than Steve Benen&#8217;s graph of budget deficits: Yep, the 2019 Federal Budget Deficit grew again, by 26%, in grievous defiance of GOP orders predictions that \u2026 <a class=\"continue-reading-link\" href=\"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/2019\/10\/26\/palpable-prophetic-failure-on-the-right\/\"> Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr; <\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-26488","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26488","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=26488"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26488\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":26493,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26488\/revisions\/26493"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=26488"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=26488"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/huewhite.com\/umb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=26488"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}