When I heard that the city elections for Istanbul, Turkey, had resulted in a narrow victory for the opposition’s candidate, Ekrem Imamoglu, but then the national government had nullified the elections on some obscure grounds or another, I got that bad feeling in my gut. Surely Erdogan’s national government wouldn’t let the rascally opposition gain a lick of power, much less the position of mayor of the largest city, would they?<\/p>\n
Sometimes the gut is wrong:<\/p>\n
\nThe opposition\u2019s stunning landslide victory in yesterday\u2019s controversial redo of the Istanbul municipal polls has reignited hopes that Turkey\u2019s democracy, which seemed to be in its death throes, has some fight in it still.<\/p>\n
Ekrem Imamoglu, the once obscure former Republican People\u2019s Party (CHP)\u00a0mayor\u00a0of Beylikduzu, an ugly urban sprawl on the edge of Istanbul, defeated his governing Justice and Development Party (AKP) rival\u00a0Binali Yildirim by a whopping 800,000 votes compared with the measly 13,000 ballots in the first run. The result is widely seen as the biggest setback faced by the country\u2019s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who pressured electoral authorities to invalidate the March 31 results in Istanbul in the hope of winning this time.<\/p>\n
Western diplomats cynically intoned that Erdogan would do so, cheating his way to victory if need be. But few counted on the apocalypse that was in store. Cheating\u00a0was\u00a0apparently not\u00a0an option:\u00a0AKP strongholds<\/a> like Fatih and Uskudar, where Erdogan maintains his private residence, fell to the opposition, a resounding signal that his oversize sense of entitlement coupled with a poorly managed and polarizing campaign had backfired spectacularly.\u00a0\u00a0Rising inflation and joblessness are however among the AKP\u2019s biggest woes. [AL-Monitor<\/strong><\/a>]<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
Overconfidence and the belief that they deserved it appears to have been the undoing of the ruling party. That the AKP is basically a religious party – of the Muslims, but it doesn’t really matter – suggests they probably felt they had the imprimatur of their deity and thus they couldn’t lose.<\/p>\n
It’s a common failing. We’ve seen that with the Republicans.<\/p>\n
I don’t have much more to add, except don’t despair, there’s always a chance your opponents will become overconfident when they are ascendant – and then they become descendant.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
When I heard that the city elections for Istanbul, Turkey, had resulted in a narrow victory for the opposition’s candidate, Ekrem Imamoglu, but then the national government had nullified the elections on some obscure grounds or another, I got that bad feeling in my gut. Surely Erdogan’s national government wouldn’t \u2026 Continue reading